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We are just 4 days off the November 8th Midterm elections in the United States when the Democrats will be defending their majority in the House of Representatives and hoping to maintain the edge in the Senate. There are also hundreds of state and local contests taking place. The generic ballot polling question which sums up the broad changing mood in America is featured in the chart above and as can be seen in recent days there has been a…

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But still a long way behind

A gift to his opponents at the general election? We have to keep on remembering that Sunak is relatively new to politics which may explain some of his approaches. Announcing that he wasn’t going to go to the COP climate change conference in Egypt but then reversing it inevitably is going to be portrayed as a U-turn and having a reputation for u-turns comes at a price. This latest move that some of the pledges he made during his leadership…

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The betting chart shows the movements on the general election outcome that have taken place over the last 6-months. As can be seen a hung parliament and a Labour majority are now running head to head with a Conservative majority down as a 17% chance. Given the recent very strong polling for LAB then it might be argued that the party should be favourite to win an overall majority.. There seems to be the view that the current polls with…

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It was on September 23rd that Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his now infamous budget – the first big move by the Liz Truss government. At the time the Tories were polling relatively well even though they were still behind. These were the three polls immediately before his statement: Techne 7% LAB lead YouGov 8% LAB lead Opinium 5% LAB lead The response of the market was terrifying and the following day the pound reached an all-time low against the American dollar….

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My guess is that over the next couple of years we’re going to see quite a number of stories like that involving the former Health Secretary, Hancock, in the papers this morning. Given what is happening in the polls it is very hard to envisage more than a handful of Tories remaining after the general election and all 360 Tory MPs must be worried about their job security. Even those sitting MPs with substantial majorities will find it hard to…

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This is certainly one of the most interesting new developments today and the BBC has got it right. I’m sure they will have a different lead for other bulletins tonight. TV news bulletins should essentially be about what is different about the world today compared with yesterday that will interest the audience. The Hancock move also highlights a bigger issue of whether our elected representatives should be doing this. I am sure we all recall the fuss when the Nadine…

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Above is the Smarkets betting market on who will be the prime minister after the next general election. As can be seen punters are still very strongly with Starmer while Sunak is down as a 23% chance. Clearly there is a very long way to go but Sunak’s prospects don’t look good given how poorly the party has been performing in the opinion polls. There has been some improvement but we need to see what happens in the next few…

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