politicalbetting.com

The modest Tory recovery appears to have fizzled out It might have been forgotten but the Labour GB vote lead in the 1997 General Election when Tony Blair won his landslide was just 12%. Such a gap in a current opinion poll would be regarded by the Tories in the current context as a stunning recovery. Looking back over the past couple of months the Tories got the gap down to 5% in September but everything changed with the Truss/Kwarteng…

Read More Read More

A deliberate act of voter suppression – surely not! At GE2019 there was fewer than one case in each of the 650 constituencies. This seeks to deal with a problem that barely exists. You don’t need photo ID to vote by post. Mike Smithson

Coming as it did less than two months after the last Tory budget it was no surprise that the reaction of the betting markets was far less than the “budget” of Kwarteng for the then Truss government in September. That hugely controversial event led to a massive collapse in Tory polling and a few weeks later the exit of Truss herself. Although we have probably seen the end of LAB leads of 30%+ the Tories are still in a dire…

Read More Read More

The above is the front page of yesterday’s New York Post and follows the Trump move when he announced that he was going to run for the Republican party nomination for 2024 I love the way the strapline on the New York Post appears just at the bottom of the page without even naming him and then instructs us to go to page 26! What has been interesting in the past couple of days is how a number of major…

Read More Read More

At some stage this’ll be a problem for Starmer and Sunak One thing that is very clear and that is neither of the main party leaders is going to do anything about this apart from making total token claims about seeking to improve the relationship with Brussels. The problem in each case is their base and they cannot do anything that can be perceived as undermining the outcome of the referendum. Meanwhile the British economy will continue to decline in…

Read More Read More

Those he’s backed lost but he’s going for WH2024 So Trump has made his announcement about his plan to run in 2024 and he’s already filed his papers so he is an official nominee. That of itself resolves one betting market on whether he would be a runner. The submission of the papers makes it official. His decision comes after a dreadful set of midterms when just about everybody he gave his backing to ended up a loser. In the…

Read More Read More