One of the problems for the Tories of the current huge LAB lead in polls is that it is causing quite a number of sitting MPs to consider their future. They don’t want to get to election day in 2024 and suddenly find themselves out of a job. Over the last week or so 2 or 3 Tory MPs have announced that they will not be standing at the next general election and William Wragg, the member member for Hazelgrove…
In these dark days we need all the shafts of light we can get in our politics. So it is with some gratitude that today we learn of two cases being brought before the European Court of Human Rights in the very same week that the tomato-throwing Lord Chancellor and Minister of Justice again brings forward his Bill of Rights and answers questions on it. What make these cases so delicious is that they are being brought by, first, Owen…
Inevitably Brexit will get blamed This is going to be a hard one for Sunak and his party to deal. For there is little doubt that for whatever reason the UK is not faring as well as other close economies in Europe. This comes at a time when Brexit is under greater scrutiny with a record number of people. according to the polling, who say it was wrong. At some stage you can see pressure mounting for a closer and…
Whenever there is a new Prime Minister the pollster, Ipsos, issues its updated version of the above chart showing the opening satisfaction ratings for the new man or woman at Number 10. Ipsos is able to do this because it has been in the UK political polling longer than anybody else I don’t think we should read too much into how Sunak fares. I would argue, the ratings were largely formed by the circumstances in which he took over from…
So not as bad for the ex-minister as it appeared In the betting he’s now a 16% chance to end up as the winner. Mike Smithson
At the weekend the Indy’s John Rentoul had an analysis under the heading “Here’s how Rishi Sunak can win the next election”. The heading was deliberately provocative and this an area that is worth looking at if only because it is against the prevailing narrative. I like looking at numbers and featured above is from the latest Deltapoll survey which has LAB 24% ahead. It is where that vote is coming from that interests me. As can be seen about…
Don’t worry. This is not about trans rights or what a woman is. It is about Scottish governance, the process of Scottish legislation and the consequences of relying on small parties for votes. Above all, it’s about whether Ms Sturgeon is a straight politician as she likes to claim, whether she is being economical with the truth, whether she has misled Holyrood. Like pretty much all politics these days, it’s about integrity. Ms Sturgeon and her Ministers have repeatedly said – both…
A 42% betting chance to be the WH2024 nominee Today is the 80th birthday of the US president Joe Biden and this comes at a time when there’s a lot of speculation about whether he’ll seek to run again in 2024. Clear age is a factor here and if the was nominated again and won he would remain at the White House till January 2029 when he would be in his late 80s. If he wants to do it then…