The memory of GE1992 is still strong Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades and yet the betting markets have not reacted as can be seen in the chart showing movements in the general election overall majority betting market. I must say that I expected to wake up this morning to see the betting numbers change a fair bit following the poll that has the Tories on just 19%. Sure the pollster involved is very…
Brexit “Wrong” edges up 2% to a 19% lead
As backing for Brexit declines so will his party Sunak has got better personal ratings than his two predecessors Johnson and Truss but the voting polls remain very poor and unless there is some improvement then the Tories will be out at the next general election. The party is not helped by the fact that their target to stay at Number 10 in terms of seats is considerably higher than for Labour. If Starmer doesn’t make the 326 seats required…
Is there any way back for Sunak’s party? The party started 2022 with average leads about 4%. Just compare that with what we are seeing at the moment. It is hard to argue anything other than the voting public is tired of the Tories and wants change and maybe the current trend will continue until that point in 2024 or sooner when whoever is the leader decides to go to the country. The Tories tried changing their leader and have…
I’m sure Starmer would agree
Near certain defeat seems to face Sunak’s party In an analysis in the I the prominent political scientist Professor John Curtice suggests that the Tories might be too far behind to stage a meaningful recovery to avoid being defeated at the next general election Things went very wrong for the party in the aftermath of the mini-budget last September and as the polling shows the Tories are still a long way behind since in spite of staging a little bit…