politicalbetting.com

But only 11% have switched to LAB Of all the online posters nowadays one firm that stands out and that is YouGov which is effectively the pollster that invented it. One result is that their polling panel is larger than just about anybody else’s with very good records on what members of the panel said they did at previous general elections. This means that when the firm breaks down polling responses on past vote then it is probably more reliable…

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This looks like a small improvement for the PM and DeltaPoll’s figures are broadly in line with other firms. Given the very high proportion of CON GE2019 saying don’t know on voting intention this is probably a better measure of the current state of play than the voting polls. As I have been arguing the Tories are not as far behind as the voting intention numbers might suggest because of this factor. The challenge facing Sunak, though, remains huge and…

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The Smarkets chart above shows how the next general election most seats betting has been moving since the last contest. Undoubtedly this is driven by the polls and given that Labour continues to have very significant leads across the board then it is not surprising that punters are taking the view they are of the eventual outcome. I think the problem at the moment for the Tories is that Rishi Sunak has yet to build up significant support for himself…

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This very much highlights the challenge facing Sunak and his party – the Tories have lost most support amongst the age groups where traditionally they have been strong. What is also striking is that the Tory losses are substantially greater than the Labour gains which reflects what I have been noting for weeks – Starmer’s party has not been picking up enough of the GE2019 Tory vote. What is happening is that a large slab of the Tory decline is…

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Another rejection of Sunak and his government One of the features of the current wave of strikes in the public sector is that the public when polled are generally in support of those taking action. It was easy to see how the nurses could get backing but now the latest poll from YouGov finds support teachers and I find that more remarkable. In many ways this is a reflection of views of the government which has seen its ratings nosedive….

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In less than a year we should see the first Primary in the 2024 White House Race. There is a lot of debate going on within the Democratic party about which state should be first with efforts being made to dislodge Iowa and New Hampshire from their normal first slots. There is also the quite high possibility of the Democratic primary race being operated entirely separately from the Republican one with the latter tending to follow the traditional order that…

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