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In the next Conservative leader betting Boris Johnson has now slipped back from the favourite slot following the latest moves in relation to what has become known as partygate. This is being driven by two things:the revival of focus on Sue Gray following her appointment by Keir Starmer and the coming report by the Privileges Committee on whether Johnson did tell what could be an untruth to Commons over his actions during that difficult period. Today’s front pages show there…

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Today there has seen a lot of what appears to be confected outrage by many Conservatives over the decision by Keir Starmer to appoint Sue Gray as his chief of staff. It was Gray, the former senior civil servant who carried out the investigation following the reports of lockdown breaking by Boris Johnson. Whatever the merits of today’s attacks it does highlight a particular weakness on the part of the Tories in finding a way of undermining the Labour leadership….

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This is one of those times when I recall the advice of the Tory polling advisor Lord Hayward. He always took the view that we need to wait 2 weeks before coming to a conclusion about whether a particular event has had an impact on public opinion. On the face of it the Sunak government has had a very good week and no doubt he will be approaching things with a good deal more confidence. His big move on Northern…

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This is from the Wikipedia polling table for the weeks before his announcement on July 7th 2022. I think it is hard to assert that the Tories were only a “handful of points behind” but the party was doing better than it is at the moment. Mike Smithson

The LAB lead varies between 14% and 27% Hopefully today we will see the first GB voting poll following the events of Monday on the moves relating to the Northern Ireland protocol. Sunak has played a leading role here and has been getting a good press. This comes at a time when there appears to have been a slight narrowing in Labour’s lead as can be seen from the Wikipedia chart table above. My guess is that over the next…

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What has become clear over the past couple of days is that Sunak appears to be doing very well – certainly much better than he was. A big question is whether this will be reflected in the polls and my guess is that we will see the Labour lead in one of two surveys slip quite sharply. As far as I can see the best betting opportunity is on who will win most seats at the next general election where…

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Since his speech in Northern Ireland yesterday a number of commentators have observed the passion in which the Prime Minister spoke about the benefits of the single market. This of course begs the question that if this is okay for that part of the UK why shouldn’t other parts benefit? That could have almost been a speech for Remain in a referendum campaign. No doubt selected quotes from what he said yesterday will be used by those who are pressing…

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One of the big issues that Sunak has had to face over the past weeks and months is that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson might be planning a comeback. Any such move of course would involve Rishi losing his job. The former Mayor of London and later PM has yet to fully acknowledge that the world has changed and that it is going to be increasingly harder for him to get involved at a senior level within the party apart…

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