This from GE1992 is really quite extraordinary with the winner on just 26% of the vote and the Tories in fourth place only 3.4% behind. The rise of the SNP at GE2015 has rather obscured what happens under first past the post when in some seats four parties have a chance of taking the seat. My guess is that with the drop in fortunes for the SNP that we might see results similar again though not necessarily this close. Mike…
Given the current state of UK politics, it comes as something of a shock to recall that a little over two years ago one of the leading betting markets was on which month LAB would get at least one pollster recording a lead. Now even though the Tories have made quite a big recovery from last October they still seem a fair way behind in the polls though there is real hope given the way Sunak is getting relatively good…
Scotland is fast becoming to British politics what Ireland was in the 19th century: a country with endless, seemingly unresolvable, political grievances and issues defying easy answers. It has voted against independence but since 2007 has voted into power a party whose raison d’être this is. The current travails (today’s development a whistleblower about SNP finances claiming threats by the police, whose chief retired earlier than expected shortly before Sturgeon announced her resignation) are what almost inevitably happen when a…
The seat borders Lib Dem held Twickenham as well as Ed Davey’s Kingston seat and it is highly likely that it will be a key target for the LDs at the general election. To put the GE2019 result into contention this happened on the same day as the Tories won their near landslide majority, Raab had just about the worst result at GE2019 than for any other Tory incumbent. The boundaries are slightly different for the next election but this…
Starmer’s party edging down in the betting