The table shows all the published GB Westminster voting polls over the last three weeks and as can be seen the Tory deficit remains in double figures. It did get a bit closer in the later Deltapoll but still above 10%. Given that the numbers would likely tighten during an election campaign it is worth reminding ourselves that Labour almost certainly needs a national vote share of at least 7% to ensure an overall majority. My own view is that…
Given how important Scotland’s 57 seats are likely to be at the next election this latest Scotland-only poll could be significant. At GE2010 LAB had 41 of the then 59 seats total north of the border. That was just about wiped out at GE2020 after the Scottish IndyRef which really energised the nationalists. In recent times the SNP has been going through its own troubles and the potential for big seat losses is great. The LDs have a big interest…
Dorries and BoJo have got weaker. In many ways the political winner of the past week has been the Prime Minister. This is for the simple reason that the main possible person who could undermine his position Boris Johnson is now effectively out of it. As we know Johnson has never hidden his desire to get back into Number 10 and there was always a risk that he could at some stage could have mounted a coup against Sunak. After…
Selby and Uxbridge take place on July 20th and currently punters think the Tories will hold on in the former but lose the latter which was Johnson’s old seat. We don’t have a date for Mid-Beds because Nadine is waiting for confirmation of her peerage before making a move. As can be seen punters think there’s a 67% chance of the LDs taking it if in fact it does take place. The Tories and LAB have chosen candidates for the…
For someone who loves the limelight just about more than anyone else in British politics, Johnson should love the Friday front pages. That someone with his approach to truth and integrity could have held the highest elected office in the land for more than three years should concern all those who value democracy. My guess is that more will drip out about how the UK was governed during this period and there could be more front pages like those we…
This week has seen 2 dominant politicians depart and 1 make the same sort of dangerous mistakes. The first was Silvio Berlusconi. Much like Boris he presented himself as a disruptor, there to shake up the system for the people’s benefit. This was a big fat lie. Berlusconi was a product of the sleazy clientilismo embedded in Italian politics since WW2. It was how he made his money; its collapse as a result of ferocious magistrates threatened his gains. He…
Even CON voters think he should quit In all of this I just wonder whether Johnson and his close advisors have overestimated the support they think their man has amongst voters. Sure non-Tory voters have a negative view but it is the split amongst Tory voters that is surprising. Johnson is used to bragging about his victory at GE2019 but that, as all the polling showed, was down to the very negative view about the then LAB leader Corbyn. Sure…