Tory splits give Starmer’s party a boost Above is the latest betting chart from the Smarkets exchange on the general election outcome. As can be seen a LAB majority is edging back up again and stands at nearly a 60% chance. It is hard to argue based on current numbers that the next election won’t see LAB return to power in some form. Even if they fail to make the 123 seat gains required for an overall majority the chances…
Last night’s vote in the House of Commons on Boris Johnson was probably the most significant politically that we have had for some time. The issue that has emerged is that Sunak apparently arranged so he was not there for the vote and I wonder whether that will be regarded as a huge mistake For in doing so he satisfied no one. I guess in view of the events of last week that it would have been better to distance…
It has been on the card for months – a by-election in Mid Beds where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010. What has driven this have been the reports that she was in line to be elevated to the House of Lords. Bettting has started on the “election” and the LDs have been sending in teams of campaigners. Only problem is that currently there is no vacancy. We now know that she was indeed put forward by Johnson as…
The table shows all the published GB Westminster voting polls over the last three weeks and as can be seen the Tory deficit remains in double figures. It did get a bit closer in the later Deltapoll but still above 10%. Given that the numbers would likely tighten during an election campaign it is worth reminding ourselves that Labour almost certainly needs a national vote share of at least 7% to ensure an overall majority. My own view is that…
Given how important Scotland’s 57 seats are likely to be at the next election this latest Scotland-only poll could be significant. At GE2010 LAB had 41 of the then 59 seats total north of the border. That was just about wiped out at GE2020 after the Scottish IndyRef which really energised the nationalists. In recent times the SNP has been going through its own troubles and the potential for big seat losses is great. The LDs have a big interest…
Dorries and BoJo have got weaker. In many ways the political winner of the past week has been the Prime Minister. This is for the simple reason that the main possible person who could undermine his position Boris Johnson is now effectively out of it. As we know Johnson has never hidden his desire to get back into Number 10 and there was always a risk that he could at some stage could have mounted a coup against Sunak. After…