Why the change in Boris and Ken prices? There’s been a sharp move to Boris during the past hour in the London Mayoral race betting. As at 12.25pm he was at 1.51 which he was last at before the Unison-sponsored Ipsos-MORI poll in Wednesday morning. A couple of people have emailed me to say that the Observer is carrying a poll tomorrow and the paper’s normal pollster is Ipsos-MORI. I don’t know the truth of this but have been following…
Is 5/1 that he will a good value bet? Matthew Parris’s Saturday column in the Times is almost always a good read although his views on Gordon Brown have to be read in the context of an hostility that has continued for years. But this morning he raises an issue that I have been planning to cover for weeks – could Gordon be out before the general election? Parris concludes: “..Many political and journalistic reputations have been staked on taking…
Countdown to May 1st – The Unitaries and the Shadows A total of 338 Seats will be contested in 19 Unitary Authorities on May 1st. In addition, elections will be held for four new Shadow Unitary Authorities, Cheshire East, Cheshire West and Chester, Northumberland, and Durham, which will replace the existing County and District Councils, next year. A total of 346 seats are being contested in these new authorities. Blackburn with Darwen, currently under No Overall Control, will remain that…
Making sense of the different predictions Firstly a declaration of financial interest: As I reported on Wednesday I was underwhelmed by Boris in the Tuesday Newsnight debate and closed almost all my positions on him for the London mayoralty by 9am of that day, pocketed nearly £1000 from my spread bets, booked a holiday, and took out all the stake money I had on him with Betfair. The balance of my trading profits on the latter is split between Boris…
…. Who do you believe? YouGov, ICM or MORI? Ladbrokes have just added to the range of betting options on the London Mayoral race with markets on the vote shares that both Ken and Boris manage to end up with. Given the very different evidence from the opinion polls you might as well be betting on YouGov vs ICM/MORI. The former is showing the Tory with a 13% lead while the latter have a completely different picture. Remember this is…
Why are the Hillary campaign obituaries already starting? With the five week gap in the White House race primary calendar we haven’t spent much time recently looking at what’s happening with the Clinton-Obama contest. This will change in the next few days as the spotlight focuses on the crucial Pennsylvania contest on April 22nd. Here Hillary has to win and win big if she is to have any hope of staying in contention. Meanwhile there’s a new trend in parts…
The data shows that there were only four votes in it The full detail from today’s MORI London poll is just out and the top-line split is much tighter than the 51%-49% Ken-Boris headline figures that have been reported. Look at the table above and you will see how close it is. Taking those “certain to vote” – the pollster’s standard filter, of first and qualifying second preferences and you find 207 for Ken against 203 for Boris. This works…
A trade union sponsored poll out this morning from Ipsos-MORI on the London Mayoralty put Ken Livingstone in the lead and add further to the polling confusion over the race. Amongst first choices the split amongst those “certain to vote” is JOHNSON 40%: LIVINGSTONE 41%: PADDICK 10% 14%. This is very similar to a survey by the pollster in February which had been commissioned by the Labour party. If you include all those naming a choice Ken had an 8%…