Will the pollster perform better than it did in Scotland? A new London survey tonight from a firm that is not listed as a member of the British Polling Council provides a big boost to Ken as he seeks to defend his mayoralty. The firm, MRUK, found first preference figures of Ken 45%: Boris 44%: Paddick 9%. After second preferences are taken into account Boris and Ken are on 50:50. The survey took place from April 7th to the 14th…
Which is the best guide to the likely outcome? Just twelve days to go before more than five million Londoners get the chance to vote in an election that is being widely regarded as a proxy for the general election. Because it is in the capital and because of the massive national media coverage the winner of Britain’s single election will have an enormous impact on the overall political environment. The stakes are enormous: a Conservative win with Boris Johnson…
The Welsh Local Elections Wales is seeing all-out local elections on May 1st. There are twenty two Welsh Unitary Authorities with 1,264 seats coming up for election. There are several curious features about Welsh local politics. Firstly, Labour doesn’t enjoy anything like the dominance in Wales that it enjoys at Parliamentary level. Currently it holds just eight of the authorities and does not control either Cardiff, or Swansea, Wales’ largest cities. Secondly, ratepayers, independents, and other non-party candidates remain very…
Will this be a by election nightmare for Cameron? It is always sad that when a sitting MP dies the first thoughts of the political classes are on the up-coming by election – and I am sure that such a hardy campaigner as Gwyneth Dunwoody was the same. She was 77 when she died yesterday and holds the distinction of being the longest ever serving female MP. As her Wikipedia biography records she was first elected to the commons for…
Will his latest figures really hurt Ken? One interesting aspect of the London mayoral race that has been raised by Sky’s Adam Boulton is the proportion of adults who have not registered to vote in parts of London. He noted: “I’m told that when official figures are published next week by London Elects, the quango running the election, they will reveal that over two million Londoners have not registered to vote on May 1. That still leaves around five million…
How’s the encounter in seven weeks going to affect the race? The big news in the Obama-Hillary battle overnight was the first debate the two of them have taken part in for getting on for two months – and a lot has happened since then. As many commentators observed Obama went into the session as almost the presumed nominee and Hillary’s task, as well as the moderators, was to test and probe the Illinois senator’s stance and question whether he…
Is five seats the most that Cameron can hope for? There has been much discussion on whether regional swings may provide a hidden bonus for the Tories at the next election. In particular, so the logic goes, the Tories are underperforming in Scotland, so they must be doing above average in England (and/or Wales.) True enough, but how can we measure the differences, and calibrate any possible benefit? In truth we can’t, for the simple fact that regional poll breakdowns…
Is the trend with MORI really quite positive for him? After taking my profits in the mayoral betting last week the odds following last night’s debate have shifted enough for me to start risking some cash again. A price of 4/6, which has been available on Betfair, looks a fair value bet especially after reviewing the detail of the latest polling particularly from MORI. The firm has had three published surveys on the race and produces, effectively, four sets of…