As expected the LDs take Somerton by big margin LAB did flip Selby on big swing As was not expected judging by the betting markets the Tories held on to the Hillingdon seat in the overnight by-elections in what surely is a big blow to Labour. At this stage before a general election Starmer’s party should have been taking seats like this with some ease. This was also in Greater London where the party generally does well. Somerton and Frome…
And LAB close to 90% in the other two
Somerton, Selby and Uxbridge are the first Westminster by-election defences that Sunak has had to face since becoming leader and PM nine months ago. The other by-elections to be held have been in safe LAB seats. That the Tories are in for a tough night is almost priced and if by any chance the party managed to retain one of the three seats that would surely underpin the leader’s position right through to the general election. This must take place…
Because I’m almost a local – I live about a mile and a half from the constituency – I’m getting a fair number of questions asking for my thoughts on the possible by-election in Mid-Beds. This is, of course, the seat where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010 and the person who announced on June 9th that she was quitting as an MP with “immediate effect”. That was in expectation that she was being given a peerage in Johnson’s…
This was bound to happen given the appalling national polling collapse that Sunak’s Tories have seen – the betting money is going on three Tory by-election losses on Thursday. The one thing that’s limiting betting activity is that the odds on the Tories losing Somerton are so so tight that risking £100 to win £2 is not an attractive proposition. These, we should all remind ourselves, will be the first by-election defences by the Tories since Sunak became leader. Mike…
How long before action on the persecution of innocent sub-postmasters? It is not easy for a Cabinet Minister to make a good impression or even achieve very much. Staying out of trouble is a high bar these days. Maybe much worthwhile work is being done behind the scenes without much, if any, publicity. Still, ambitious politicians need to make the best of whatever opportunities present themselves. So let’s look at one of those vying to be Tory party leader and…
This YouGov polling sets out very clearly what voters think will change if Starmer does indeed become PM in the next 18 months. There are high hopes that things will get better in a number of key areas but I just wonder whether too much will be expected too quickly. I recall similar hopes before GE1997 and this inevitably causes problems. Then, of course, Blair was leader and I would suggest that Starmer is going to struggle. The last LAB…
At what stage could Sunak be in trouble? Thursday is a big day for the PM whose party is facing three very difficult defences in Westminster by-elections. The betting odds for what they are worth won’t give any encouragement to Number 10. In Selby LAB is rated by punters as having an 87% chance; in Uxbridge an 87% chance while the betting markets are currently rating the LDs as having an 97% chance in Somerton and Frome. I have not…