…and a 60% turnout is projected Due to a series of cock-ups details of the latest trade union-funded poll by Ipsos-MORI have been taken off the pollster’s website but they were on long enough to pick up some key information. Ken’s first preference share projection was put at 41% which is way ahead of the 36.9% he got four years ago and the 39% that he achieved when he first swept into power in 2000. So for every SEVEN Londoners…
Are we seeing the Observer’s poll two days early? After the big boost for the Tories in this morning’s YouGov poll there’s another national survey out which shows a growing Conservative lead. The MORI Monitor for April has been published on the firm’s website, apparently by mistake, and shows the following shares with the changes on March: CON 40% (nc): LAB 31% (-4): LD 19% (+1). My understanding was that this poll was for the Observer on Sunday. The fieldwork…
A new Ipsos-MORI poll funded by the Unison public service trade union reports that Ken is ahead by 3% on first preferences and 6% after second preferences. (UPDATE: The Guardian report on the poll suggests that the 6% was scaled back to 4% after MORI had factored in whether those interviewed were registered to vote or not.) The first preference figures are KEN 41%: BORIS 38%: PADDICK 12%. After second preferences are taken into account this become KEN 52%: BORIS…
picture Mike Smithson The 2008 Local Election – The Districts Seventy Eight District Councils will hold elections on May 1st, with around 1,300 seats being contested. Most will just contest one third of the seats, but six will contest half the seats, and three, Barrow-in-Furness, South Lakeland, and Welwyn Hatfield will witness all-out contests, as a result of boundary changes. The majority of councils will see no change in control. Adur, Amber Valley, Basildon, Bassetlaw, Brentwood, Broxbourne, Cherwell, Chorley, Colchester,…
Punters still reluctant to bet on a Cameron majority Ever since Ken Livingstone sought to discredit the YouGov polling organisation after the firm’s February poll put him behind for the first time the result of next Thursday election is going to be about more than who runs London. It has become, also, about the confidence we can have in surveys from the online pollster and the conventional firms. This has become more the case this morning as the political world…
Could this be a game-changing event? The big debate in the London Mayoral campaign starts at 10.35pm. Is this going to change the election? How will it affect the betting? The latest prices are here Mike Smithson
Cameron’s Tories take an 18% lead The April YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is just out and reports another decline in Labour’s share to just 26%. the figures are with comparisons on the last survey from the pollster two weeks ago CON 44% (nc): LAB 26% (-2): LD 17% (nc) The paper says that this is the biggest lead by the Tories since 1987. It comes after a week which saw the big reversal in Labour ICM ratings when…
Why should he be so candid about the prospect of defeat? Above is the front page of tonight’s Evening Standard which seems to break all the rules of elections. Candidates are “never” supposed to contemplate the prospect of defeat because it’s thought it will demoralise their own supporters. So why is Ken saying this – assuming the quotes in the paper are accurate? It raises a whole pile of questions. Has he seen private polling which suggests that next Thursday…