One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…
Is this really “public service broadcasting”? I started ranting about this on election night itself and my anger has not subsided even though that was three nights ago. This is simply unacceptable. The BBC cannot expect to receive licence fee income if this is how it interprets its public service remit over the reporting of the democratic process. We need an assurance now from the Corporation that a totally different approach will be in place for the 2009 Euro and…
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election. Mike Smithson
What will the headlines be like three weeks today? It has become one of the great hardy annuals in UK political journalism – the Sunday papers after the May elections when year in year out the main story has been about the future of one party leader or another. And so it is today and above are a couple of the front pages. But is it different this time? Does Labour’s worst local election performance for forty years combined with…
Why did the phone pollsters over-state Labour? Following last nights results the pollster Ipsos-MORI has announced that it will be carrying out a review of its approach and the phone firms generally asking “why empirically, they appear to have tended to over-estimate the Labour share of the vote”. An issue for the firm, of course, was that its final poll was completed a week before the election and a lot can happen in the final few days. That’s certainly true…
Will the mood about Tory prospects now change? One of the most satisfying moments in betting is when you are transferring your profits into your bank account and it was good to see that Betfair settled the London mayoral market so so soon after last night’s results. For this activity is more than about the money but tangible confirmation of your predictive abilities. Anybody can have a view on a political outcome – the gambler backs up his with hard…
The figures are in line with the final poll? With the final result imminent it’s looking as though the final result will be in the region of a 6% margin for Boris Johnson – almost exactly in line with YouGov’s final poll that was reported exclusively here on Monday evening. This will come as a great relief to the online pollster which has found itself a political issue in the campaign. Right from the point that the firm was reporting…
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