What do you think of the recent market moves? I have just three positions on the Democratic race. One my 50/1 and 33/1 long-shot bets from 2005 and 2006 that Barack will go all the way. Two bets at an average of 5/1 that Hillary will get the nomination Three bets on her at an average of 6/1 that she will get the V-P slot. The closer this gets to the convention the greater the chance she has of making…
Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee’s Tuesday Guardian column this morning. After having this to say about May 22nd “..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy…” she goes on:- “…It is Labour that has become the stupid party – dumb, directionless, depressing. That’s why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn’t about ideology, it was about basic political competence. As the Conservatives unfurl…
How will the prices look on Wednesday? I’m just arrived in the Peak District to celebrate my Boris winnings on a short break. Tomorrow is, of course, the next mega-round of primary battles. Paul Maggs will once again be in the guest editor slot, assisted by Morus. Mike Smithson
One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…
Is this really “public service broadcasting”? I started ranting about this on election night itself and my anger has not subsided even though that was three nights ago. This is simply unacceptable. The BBC cannot expect to receive licence fee income if this is how it interprets its public service remit over the reporting of the democratic process. We need an assurance now from the Corporation that a totally different approach will be in place for the 2009 Euro and…
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election. Mike Smithson
What will the headlines be like three weeks today? It has become one of the great hardy annuals in UK political journalism – the Sunday papers after the May elections when year in year out the main story has been about the future of one party leader or another. And so it is today and above are a couple of the front pages. But is it different this time? Does Labour’s worst local election performance for forty years combined with…
Why did the phone pollsters over-state Labour? Following last nights results the pollster Ipsos-MORI has announced that it will be carrying out a review of its approach and the phone firms generally asking “why empirically, they appear to have tended to over-estimate the Labour share of the vote”. An issue for the firm, of course, was that its final poll was completed a week before the election and a lot can happen in the final few days. That’s certainly true…