Chickendancer Will he win enough pledged delegates to get a majority? The sign is from Prosperity, South Carolina and overnight is probably the last occasion when the picture can be used because it’s highly likely that Obama will pick up enough pledged delegates to be able to claim a clear majority. There are 51 at stake from today’s Kentucky primary and 52 from Oregon. He just needs 25 of them to be able to claim he’s won on this count….
The chart shows the changing Labour price in the Crewe and Nantwich betting illustrated as an implied probability. Almost inevitably the money has moved away from Labour following the opinion polls suggesting that Gordon Brown has very little chance of saving the seat. You can still get money on the Tories but not very much. The price has been squeezed down to 0.05/1 – which means that a successful £10 bet would produce a profit of just 50 pence. Mike…
I am out in London all day and am unable to post. Please use this continuation thread. Thanks to Icarus for the picture. Mike Smithson
Could this bring the Brown’s leadship issue to a head? Word reaches me that the former Health Secretary and fervent Blairite, Alan Milburn, is planning to mount a leadership bid to topple Gordon Brown in the aftermath of Labour’s likely heavy defeat in the Crewe & Nantwich by-election. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of this but it comes from somebody I trust who has very close links within the party. Clearly something is going on out there and this…
Could the pollsters be understating the Tory margin? The Independent’s pollster, ComRes, have made available overnight the full data from their Crewe & Nantwich poll which is in this morning’s paper and is showing a Conservative lead of 13%. Reproduced above is a table showing responses on the turnout question the certainty of voting rated on a scale of 1 to 10 from those interviewed. The picture is the same as we have seen in many other polls – Tory…
Updated 2145 CreweTV By election voting shares – CON 48%: LAB 35%: LD 12% A ComRes poll taken amongst voters in Crewe and Nantwich for the Independent is showing that the Tories are heading for a 13% lead. This is substantially bigger than the 8% that ICM had in their survey at the weekend for the News of the World. The first details came from Andrew Grice’s blog . What could be critical here is the timing of this latest…
Is there anything that Brown can do to turn things round? The May ICM national voting intention survey for the Guardian is just out and records what is the firm’s biggest Labour deficit of modern times – and is in line with the trend of other recent polls. The figures, with changes on the last ICM poll at the end of April are: CON 41% (+2): LAB (-2): LD 22% (+2). The changes reflected in the chart above are from…
How much of this is approved by Gordon? With just over two days of the Crewe and Nantwich this is the latest from the Labour in its increasingly desperate bid to hold on to the seat. For after the controversy over the Toff campaign there is a new theme for the final period which is going to make a lot of people associated with the party feel quite uncomfortable. Its attitude to human rights and its view of how the…