politicalbetting.com

I come to these betting numbers once again to underline the fact the perceptions of the general election outcome remain largely unchanged. The money continues to go on a LAB majority. This is not a bet that I have made directly – my wager is to lay an overall LAB majority.because I think that that offers the best values. Can I underline that bets are not predictions but statements of value. The current odds on s Lab majority are overstated….

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No doubt the party’s other general election targets are getting the same treatment and this chart will feature in dozens of leaflets right up to the general election. There is also little doubt that the seats will have similar profiles having chalked up big REMAIN votes in the referendum and a have a disproportionate proportion of graduates in their electorates. A fading Tory government led by an unpopular PM is exactly the right backcloth for the third party to flourish….

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She had to go. You simply cannot have the CEO of a bank unable to understand that if a journalist sat next to you at dinner asks you about a live story involving confidential details about a customer of the bank, the only possible response is “I can’t talk to you about that. Mmm, isn’t the soufflé delicious.” Especially not when in a few days time you will be presenting the bank’s results and therefore are currently in possession of…

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Have the continuing LAB leads impacted on Sunak’s judgment? When you get the CONHome founder, Tim Montgomerie, raising concerns about a Tory PM’s Tweet then Number 10 should take this seriously. This is unbecoming for a PM. I can only conclude that Sunak’s consistent failure to turn the polls around has started to get to him. His Tweet above was a disgrace and he should delete it and apoligise. Mike Smithson

The above breakdown from the latest Opinium poll looks at what those who voted CON at GE2019 are now saying. As can be seen the Tories are holding onto just 39% of their general election vote with the next biggest segment being “Won’t vote/Don’t Know”. This is quite different from those polling breakdowns that just focus on those who have a current voting intention. My judgment is that this is nothing like the big endorsement for LAB that Starmer’s party…

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Could Sunak get a better result going early? The last possible time for the general election to be held is mid-January 2025 but few pundits believe Sunak will wait that long. The consensus at the moment is that he’ll wait until next year’s party conference and call the election for late October or early November. The one thing the PM has is that this is a decision for him and him alone. History suggests that PM’s often wait too long….

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In all the discussions over next year’s London Mayoral election hardly anybody is noting that things are very different because of changes Johnson made to the mayoral voting system when he was PM. The old system effectively gave voters two choices with their second preference coming into effect if their first choice did not make the top two on the first count. Now thanks to the Johnson changes all mayoral and similar elections will be decided by first past the…

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