The PB Countdown to the General Election

The PB Countdown to the General Election

Highlands and Islands: (7 seats) Scotland underwent changes to its Westminster constituencies between 2001 and 2005 when the number of seats was reduced from 72 to 59. Holyrood still operates on the pre 2005 boundaries but has 73 constituencies due to Orkney and Shetland being separated into 2 constituencies. Scotland has 32 single tier local authorities. I would expect the 4 main parties to go into the election with the following shares of vote in Scotland: SNP 30-35%, LAB 30-35%,…

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Will Jill’s Facebook campaign get her second place?

Will Jill’s Facebook campaign get her second place?

What are the “other” contenders going to do to the Davis percentage? It’s only six days to go before Haltemprice and Howden – the by election where the former shadow home secretary, David Davis, is defending his seat made vacant by his resignation over the 42 day detention decision. With both Labour and the Lib Dems standing aside there’s an odd assortment of 25 others who will be on the ballot. It’s hard to see anything other than a big…

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Will it all be blamed on Gordon if he goes?

Will it all be blamed on Gordon if he goes?

How much does this add to the problems of Darling and Brown? In terms of public interest the main story in the Times this morning will probably have less immediate impact on public opinion than last night’s news of the rejection by the commons of the proposals to deal with MPs’s expenses. But if the paper, which appears to have this as an exclusive, has this right then it will, surely, be another hammer blow to what used to be…

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Will the 172 “John Lewis” listers pay an electoral price?

Will the 172 “John Lewis” listers pay an electoral price?

Is this a massive own-goal for those who voted for the status quo? If I was a PPC facing one of the 172 MPs who voted down the “John Lewis” list this evening I would work through the night tonight on a leaflet to hammer the incumbent so it can be delivered over the weekend. The MPs of all parties who opposed the changes were quite simply dumb and for their lack of political prowess and insensitivity alone they deserve…

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WANTED: more electoral college betting

WANTED: more electoral college betting

Electoral-vote.com Is this the way to capitalise on Obama’s possible big victory? The above map is reproduced from the excellent Electoral-Vote.com which takes all the latest state polls and expresses them graphically on a map of the US. The solid blue states look set to go the Democratic; the solid red ones to the Republicans and the others are leaning in one direction or another or are exactly tied. It’s updated every day and my guess is that we will…

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Do the SNP really have a chance in Glasgow East?

Do the SNP really have a chance in Glasgow East?

Have we been mesmerised by Boris, Crewe and Henley? During this crazy political period of spring and early summer the sure-fire way of winning political bets has been always to go against Labour. We had Boris’s triumph in London, the Tory gain in Crewe and Nantwich, followed by the Labour lost deposit in Henley. Bet against Labour – pick up your winnings. Now we’ve got the Glasgow East by election later in the month and judging by comments on the…

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How serious is the Vaz letter issue?

How serious is the Vaz letter issue?

Was a deal done or not? The big news from PMQs was the revelation by David Cameron that he had a letter from Geoff Hoon which could be read as suggesting that that the Leicester MP would be rewarded for voting with the government in the 42 day detention period vote three weeks ago. Until now Gordon Brown has flatly denied all suggestions that deals were done. The handwritten note said “”Dear Keith … Just a quick note to thank…

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Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Is it “the economy, stupid” The above table is reproduced from the June Ipsos-MORI “Issues Index” survey which has been carried out face-to-face in the same manner for decades. What’s unique about this polling series is that two questions are put totally unprompted, and the pollster has detailed records going back to the 70s. The first asks respondents to name the single most important issue facing the country while the second involves people naming all the issues they think are…

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