The markets now suggest a majority of just 26 seats Our latest Friday evening general election countdown slot is devoted to the spread betting markets on the number of seats each of the parties will end up with – something which with all the focus on the by elections we have not looked at for a month. With both Spreadfair and the SportingIndex markets there has been a distinct move away from the Tories and both markets are now suggesting…
Is the “poll” for the whole of Scotland – not just Glasgow East? Within the past hour above story has just gone up on the Guardian website – BUT PUNTERS HOLDER ON. It looks as though the paper might have confused an all-Scotland Westminster voting intention poll that was published overnight with one that was done specifically on Glasgow East. There is, of course, a world of difference. Stuart Dickson posted the all-Scotland poll here early this morning. Where the…
Does their failure suggest that anti-Tory voting is drying up? In all the analysis of the H&H numbers very little attention is being paid to the Green party which is making great play this morning of their 7.4% in Haltemprice and Howden – their candidate’s site suggests it’s a party record. But in the absence of Labour and the Liberal Democrat candidates you would have thought that the Greens, the only other nationally known party with MEPs and councillors, would…
And why more abysmal election coverage by the BBC? So David Davis got his expected big victory in the early hours and the BBC showed once again with their minimal coverage of the count and lack of analysis that they have abandoned their case to be funded by a tax enforced by all the apparatus of the criminal law. Covering the electoral process at work should be the first priority for a public service broadcaster and they failed miserably. Sky,…
Turnout down to less than 35% The count is continuing in Halteprice and Howden with the result expected after 2am. one piece of information comes in a report in the Yorkshire Post suggesting a share of 75% for Davis with reasonable showing for the Green, the English Democrats and the victims rights campaigner Jill Saward. If the reported figures are right then Davis’s overall majority in terms of votes will be about double the margin he had over the Lib…
But will turnout be high enough to justify Davis’s stance? In admittedly very light trading what money there has been placed during the day on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election has been on David Davis being returned with a vote share of in excess of 80%. The above chart shows the changing price on Betfair’s market over the past 24 hours and the trend is clear. Those few punters who have been prepared to bet have put it on the…
“Jack Straw becomes PM and calls an immediate election!!!” However much Number 10 might not like it the speculation about the future of the Labour government and Gordon Brown continues unabated. It’s hard to talk to anybody involved in politics without the conversation turning to this. This morning the Indy’s sketch writer, Simon Carr, posted an interesting piece on the paper’s Open House blog based on what some “special advisors” are said to be kicking “kicking around”. This would see…
Will Brown regret his reply to Cameron? Ever since the budget in March the potential for an explosion over the vehicle excise duty changes has been hovering in the background. Applying higher rates to vehicles that pollute the most was in line with existing green policy and Darling’s plan to impose the regime on existing vehicles as well as new purchases did not attract all that much immediate comment. In June, when Cameron pressed Brown hard on the issue he…