Is Richards right about the Tory leads being “soft”?

Is Richards right about the Tory leads being “soft”?

Or is he just clutching onto straws? Reflecting, like just about everybody, on Gordon’s future the Independent’s political writer, Steve Richards, makes an assertion in his column today that “all the polls” suggest that the Tory leads are “soft” and that “..there has been no fundamental sea change” and that “as the last year has shown, fortunes can shift dramatically.” I believe that this is a completely wrong interpretation from someone who gives that impression that he is is desperately…

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Was Obama making Kinnock’s Sheffield mistake?

Was Obama making Kinnock’s Sheffield mistake?

Did his foreign trip make him look too presumptuous? Barack Obama has returned to the US after his whirlwind foreign tour to find that some polls are now going against him. Was it wise or not and should he have avoided the mass rally in Berlin? We don’t know the long term impact but after sifting through the reports again I could not help being reminded of Labour’s famous Sheffield rally a week before the 1992 General Election. This came…

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Tory lead with Populus up three points

Tory lead with Populus up three points

Glasgow doesn’t seem to have had too much impact The latest Populus Poll for the Times is just out and shows that the Labour deficit has nudged up just two points even though the fieldwork took place during a weekend when the big story was the party leadership and the reaction the the by-election. In a way it does not add much to that we already know – Labour continue to languish in the 20s with the Tories touching the…

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Is it worth a punt on 33/1 Veneman?

Is it worth a punt on 33/1 Veneman?

Could Obama choose a former Bush Secretary of Agriculture? I’ve been given a tip that Ann Veneman, the former Bush Secretary of Agriculture and now CEO of UNICEF might be a good bet for Barack’s VP choice. Certainly there’s been a fair degree of comment in the US media over the past few hours. She looks an interesting choice. I’ve no idea how good the information is but I’ve put £100 on at the 33/1 that Ladbrokes were offering. Mike…

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Could Bruce Anderson’s Gord story be true?

Could Bruce Anderson’s Gord story be true?

Is this just part of the media frenzy? There’s been a lot on the blogsphere this afternoon about a story that the Independent’s veteran political writer, Bruce Anderson, tells in his column today. This could have an impact. The stories are seeping out from No. 10. The other day, Gordon Brown was convinced that Dominic Grieve, the shadow Home Secretary, had made such a strong attack on 42-day detention as to impugn his commitment to national security. Although Downing Street…

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Is Harriet the danger for Tory landslide punters?

Is Harriet the danger for Tory landslide punters?

Could a “game-changing” Gord replacement upset the media narrative? There’s been quite a bit of activity on the Tory landslide markets where punters have driven the price down from 4/1 at the end of June to 6/4 with William Hill at the moment. Ladbrokes have also got a market. Yesterday the price on the Tories getting a majority of 100 or more was 3/1 and looked quite an attractive bet. Today that’s down to 9/4. Given the overwhelming polling evidence…

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Labour get a little closer with YouGov

Labour get a little closer with YouGov

..but yet another poll points to a Cameron-landslide What is probably the final poll of July, from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph, is out this morning and the numbers show a minor improvement for Labour compared with the latest survey from the firm earlier in the month. Note that my comparisons are with that poll, not June’s Telegraph survey. The shares with changes on the last poll from the pollster are CON 45 (-2): LAB 26% (+1): LD 17% (+1)….

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Will it be the union bosses who finally sink Gordon?

Will it be the union bosses who finally sink Gordon?

What if the party’s paymasters say he has to go? The founder of the MORI polling organisation, Bob Worcester, has made the most astute observation on a day that has been dominated by the future of Gordon Brown. In a Radio 4 interview he said that it wasn’t the men in grey suits “that Brown has to look out for, it’s the men in black suits, from the trade unions, as they are the paymasters now..The party is skint, and…

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