The PB community wins the battle of the predictors Above are the final predictions from Wednesday’s PB online poll on who we thought would win Glasgow East and the Politics Home panel of 100 “insiders” and “experts”. Notice anything? Without crowing (well only a little bit) this was an overwhelming victory for the site over the PH100 which very much represents received opinion. We can feel proud this morning. Mike Smithson
Was it their “17% Labour margin” that made the SNP prices attractive? Yet again an election has shown the pollsters up and reinforced my default position when assessing all voting intention surveys – “always assume that Labour is being overstated“. The whole atmosphere in the lead up to yesterday’s Glasgow East by election was affected by the Scottish Progressive Opinion survey that had Labour 17% ahead. I was highly sceptical about their methods right from the start and it was…
The polls closed at 10pm but the Glasgow East betting will continue right through until the result is known. I’ve not been convinced either way in the this contest and have refrained from betting today. Maybe that was a mistake. The whole atmosphere has been dominated by the polls – particularly the latest one and this has had a big impact on the betting. Whether what punters are doing is in any way predictive we’ll know before very long. Mike…
How is this going to impact on the fight with McCain? As we wait for the Glasgow polls to close the big international political story has been Obama’s speech in Berlin. You can watch it in full here. American election betting – live prices. Mike Smithson
How good a predictor is this? The chart shows how the Betfair prices on the by election have moved in the past twelve hours with the odds reflected as an implied probability. If there is any information coming from on the ground then it’s hard to detect it having an impact. Certainly there’s nothing happened so far that has caused SNP backers to feel confident about backing their choice to tighter prices. The general experience of by elections is that…
How the PB community split at 2.15 am I’m not normally a great fan of instant online quickie polls like the one we did yesterday on people’s forecasts for today’s Glasgow East by-election. Those who take part are self-selecting and the technical savvy could vote more than once. Yet the result that’s come out totally reflects my own view of what will happen today. This is a 50-50 shot even though the betting markets make Labour the 0.31/1 odds-on favourite….
What happens when the third party works – but doesn’t win? A strongly argued post by the Norfolk Blogger, Nick Starling, has been picked up by several in the blogsphere for the way it powerfully sets out the dilemma facing the Lib Dems. Reflecting on the massive changes in the political scene Nick notes that Cameron has “turned around the fortunes of the Conservative “brand”, removed the tarnish from it and has stopped people feeling embarrassed to be openly Tory….