The Guardian’s monthly ICM poll is just out and produces vote shares very much in the same ball-park as the YouGov poll earlier in the week. Fieldwork for the latter was taken on Tuesday and Wednesday while the former was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday. Labour will feel encouraged and the Tories will still be pleased to be above the 40% mark even though they have been almost totally out of the headlines for weeks. The timing of the…
What if McCain just doesn’t show? With the first of the presidential debates due to start at 2am UK time there’s still a lot of confusion over whether or not the GOP nominee, John McCain will actually show up. The Irish bookmakers, Intrade, have been running a market on whether or not this will happen. The venue is in Oxford Mississippi where something like $5m has been spent on organising the event and everything looked fine until McCain’s call on…
Aren’t Votes are votes whatever the motivation? In the Times today Peter Riddell is arguing that the latest Populus poll suggests that the prospective Conservative vote at the next general election is “soft” because a large proportion say it’s because they are anti-Labour rather than being pro-Tory. The figures show that of the Tory voters in the poll just 56% said they would do so because they are pro-Tory while 44% are just anti-Labour This compares with Labour supporters where…
How dangerous is such a widespread media perception? Two days the Labour conference in Manchester and time for more reflection and analysis of what is right and what is wrong with the party as its leader he seeks to hold onto office. There’s one term that features in much of the coverage which is highly damaging to Brown – “Downing Street Dysfunctionality”. This is said to have embodied in the farcical circumstances surrounding the 3am press conference in a hotel…
Is he planning to reject the President’s bail-out plan? Ever since this picture was taken at a rally six months ago it has proved to be a major embarrassment to the McCain campaign which has been desperate to detach itself from the man who has become the most unpopular president in American polling history, George Bush. But a striking image is worth so much more than even the most power set of words and the picture has been used time…
The possibility that Gordon Brown could be leaving the Labour leader’s job has spurred our efforts to get a new masthead which is in a very different style to the old ones. In the four and a half years since we were established we’ve stuck with incorporating pictures of politicians in one form or another on the masthead. This was good at first but it required constant updating when new figures came in and old figures went out. It also…
Why are they always the first to respond? The “quickie” YouGov poll for this morning’s Sun has raised an interesting question from the previous thread from Nick Palmer MP. He wonders “whether YouGov is confident that the subgroup of their panel who reply to surveys within 24 hours are representative? No idea what sort of bias it might introduce, but worth a thought.” I agree and maybe someone from the firm might respond. What I do know is that the…
Is it time for punters to cash in on the annual polling quirk? On the face of it today’s YouGov poll is great for Labour, a warning to the Tories and bad news for the Lib Dems who have seen all their gains of last week just wiped out. In fact polls bang in the middle of conference season are usually totally misleading and merely reflect that whoever was on most recently was getting an extra publicity boost. This is…