politicalbetting.com

The big political betting news has been the UK betting market reaction to the first Republican presidential debate. As can be seen from the charts it has had very little impact. Trump didn’t attend and his prices have hardly changed. The contender who was getting most cheers in the hall was 38 year old Vivek Ramaswamy who over the past weeks has edged up to second in the nomination betting. He has what some would regard as extreme policies particularly…

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Sunak, surely, needs to take more action The ongoing story of Nadine Dorries continuing to be an MP more than two months after her “resignation with immediate effect” continues to get coverage. It is not helped that Dorries, of “I’m a celebrity” fame, has a high media profile and people know who she is. Her appalling record of what she has or hasn’t done for her constituents over the past year continues to get coverage and even the PM when…

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I really don’t know what to make of this poll but there is little doubt that Trump is facing a whole pile of legal problems. The big question is what impact this will have on his efforts to regain the White House? What will be scaring Trump’s team at the moment is the increasing number of those named in the indictments who seem to be volunteering to help the prosecution. Plea deals appear to be taking place Although the above…

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Who’ll hold the seat at the end of the parliament? Labour and the LDs have had a little battle going on in Mid Bedfordshire each trying to establish that they will be the main challenger if Nadine Dorries does indeed step aside and there’s a by-election to replace her. Labour is highlighting their second place at GE2019 when although they were a long way behind they were ahead of the LDs. Davey’s party is undoubtedly the by-election king with a…

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Poll finds 49% of Brits want the UK to remain – 26% say leave Some senior Tories are pressing Sunak to include a commitment to leave the European Convention on Human Rights in the party’s next election manifesto. This follows the decisions of the court on the government’s Rwanda plans. Maybe this latest poll from More in Common will cause the party to think again. It found that 49% want Britain to remain a member of the Convention while leaving…

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As we have seen on previous threads many Tory supporters are getting a little bit of the confidence back with the latest R&W Paul having the deficit down to just 15%. The same trend has been seen with other firms and we are getting a bit closer to the point where a LAB majority might just be in the balance. One thing is looking pretty clear and that the days of Labour leads of 20% plus are no longer there…

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Thanks to the Smarkets betting exchange for their latest betting prices on the November 2024 White Race. As can be seen the betting money is going on a Trump-Biden rematch with the Democrat getting re-elected. My view is that Trump is such a divisive character and faces so many challenges at the moment that he might fail to get the nomination. Much of the polling at his stage is less about voting intention and more about name recognition. I think…

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The latest betting exchange odds on Trump being the WH2024 GOP nominee rate Trump as about a 70% chance. To me this sounds to be on the high side given the mounting criminal indictments he is facing and a new factor highlighted in the YouTube video linked to above. This is because someone who did what he did on January 6th 2021 cannot in good faith take the oath of office if he did get re-elected. The MSNBC video goes…

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