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This polling is, of course, completely hypothetical but it does show the ongoing problem that Starmer’s predecessor had. By the time of GE2019 he was a huge negative for Labour. An Opinium on the day poll in December 2019 found that the overwhelming reason why former GE2017 LAB voters had switched was because of Corbyn – NOT because of Boris Johnson. My problem with the poll is what it is asking of those sampled. Whatever it is interesting nevertheless. Mike…

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I like this from the Biden Team – a campaign ad consisting of an extract from a Trump speech. Very clearly the strongest message Biden has is the need to stop Trump who is liked by his base but that is simply not enough. Both of them are too old but it is hard to see the November election being other than a repeat of WH2020. Mike Smithson

This is a very good point from @PaulMotty because if Trump is struggling in Georgia the range of options to secure the 270 electoral college votes required for victory are very limited indeed. A big point about US Presidential Elections is that they are won and lost in the battleground states almost all of which allocate their electoral college votes on a winner takes all basis. Amongst all the states only Maine and Nebraska, do not have winner-takes all. In…

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This is an unusual question but the numbers are very interesting all the same. The finding that will most encourage LAB is the total of unsatisfied down at 24%.

This polling shouldn’t surprise us – how Americans view the actions of Trump is very much linked to their party allegiance. A big question is how would the former President would perform if he was to be the nominee at WH2024 and the numbers to watch are those voters who tell pollsters that they are independents. I would suggest based on the above that this group are more negative than positive about the former President. On Smarkets the Democrats remain…

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At the next election what happens in Scotland looks set to have a big impact on the overall outcome which is why I tend to take a lot of notice of Scotland-only polls which are relatively rare. As a rule you cannot really attach too much importance to Scottish sub-samples in standard GB polling What we are seeing north of the border is the aftermath of the problems that the SNP has been having. Remember how at GE2019 the SNP…

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The have been several polls on this in the last few weeks and in each case, the numbers have been very strong for rejoining the EU. At the moment this is not a party political issue because Starmer is not going to go anywhere near it. Getting Labour’s support in the red wall back remains one of his first priorities and it is hard to see how calling for the UK rejoining the EU would fit with that. My guess…

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This is Trump’s message and he will go on shouting about this right until the moment when he’s either not got the nomination or has won the presidency back. The key figure is that from Independents and while 30% might seem high most don’t agree I also think that the GOP voter figure of 59% is something as a positive and it would fall sharply if Trump is seen to struggle in the primaries which begin in February. The interesting…

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