How good are current ratings as a pointer to the general election? The fact that there’s been absolutely no change in the CON-LAB shares in today’s Guardian ICM brings to mind the success this series of polls has had in the run-ups to the last three general elections – even from this far out. Just look at the table above showing all the ICM polls for the paper from October 2003 to May 2005 – about the same distance we…
To help you plan your party – Harry Hayfield guides us hour by hour A fortnight tonight the whole world will be watching the American nation and throughout the UK election night parties are being planned. But what about the timings and when we will know the result? To guide you Mike has suggested that I produce this run-down – hour-by-hour. 11.00pm GMT November 4th 2008 (IN, KY) Now, in any ordinary election, the states of Indiana and Kentucky would…
But for Labour and the Tories it’s no change The Guardian‘s October survey from ICM is now out and for Labour and the Tories there is no change on the last poll from the firm just after the Conservative conference. The big winner is Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems who have been battered in recent surveys from other pollsters but not from ICM. The 21% share is not much down on the general election and is the best from…
What will ICM be saying tonight? As site regulars will know I have theory, based on nearly three years of records, that the single most important driver in the CON-LAB poll numbers is the amount of media coverage that Cameron gets. If he’s been making the headlines or leading the bulletins then his party’s ratings go up – if he’s been blanked out of the news agenda then there will be a decline. This is about the quantity of coverage…
UPDATED Were spread punters premature in switching to the Tories? After reporting that the spread markets had moved sharply back to the Tories I have now picked up on the YouGov poll in the Daily Mirror which shows a narrowing of the Tory lead to 8% – although Cameron’s party share is still comfortably in the 40s. In the panel above I reproduce a seat projection from the UK Polling Report calculator which suggests that what appeared a certainty until…
Are they betting that the media narrative is wrong? Spread betters who risk hundreds and sometimes thousands of pounds on the outcome of the next election have moved sharply against Labour. There have been shifts of a massive eight seats on the markets where the number of MPs the parties will end up with are traded like stocks and shares. This in spite of the big opinion poll stories in the papers yesterday about the move back to Labour in…
Click graphic to play video Bush’s former Secretary of State endorses the Senator from Illinois In a powerful appearance on Meet The Press which is well worth viewing, Colin Powell today set out the reasons why he will be casting his vote for Barack Obama, praising his steadiness, intellectual curiosity and vigour, and his depth of knowledge. He described him as a “transformational figure” of substance who had fought a campaign that was inclusive and inspirational, one that reached out…
Is Ed now better value than David? In the light of all that’s happened over the last few extraordinary weeks, including Brown’s role in managing the economic crisis and even a Republican administration buying shares in American banks, now may be a good time to reconsider the Labour leadership market – especially as last night’s polls suggest that the party’s performance remains distinctly anaemic. The table above is courtesy of Shadsy and “The Magic Sign”, and there are one or…