Has Labour just moved from “dire” to “deep” trouble?

Has Labour just moved from “dire” to “deep” trouble?

Should Westminster heed John Curtice’s words? While we wait for the polling stations to open in America let’s focus for three or four hours on the political situation in the UK and some timely words from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in today’s Independent. Under a headline “Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings” Curtice is quoted as saying: “..The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to…

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You can even bet on the time that McCain will concede

You can even bet on the time that McCain will concede

Is there money to be made guessing the timing? After paying out on winning Obama bets a fortnight ago the Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower, has made another betting move which could infuriate those who still harbour hopes that somehow the polls are wrong and that 72 year old Senator from Arizona can win tomorrow. They’ve opened betting on the timing of his concession speech- which is clearly linked very closely to the time-table of state results that we will see overnight….

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Is this where Gord’s second media honeymoon will end?

Is this where Gord’s second media honeymoon will end?

Do the SNP justify their odds-on status? A week ago I suggested here that the 7/4 Labour price that was then available was a good value bet and was where my money was going. My reading at the time was that this was a 50-50 chance so odds greater than evens represented value. Well we’ve moved on a week, we’ve had a so-called “Glenrothes poll”, and I’ve had chance to consult the person I most trust to read Scottish politics….

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Guess which of these polls had mobile users in their samples?

Guess which of these polls had mobile users in their samples?

If Obama wins big will UK pollsters have to change? The chart is from Nate Silver’s excellent fivethirtyeight.com and shows the Obama leads from the major national White House polls colour-coded according to whether the firms do or do not include cellphone users in their samples. You guessed it – the ones in yellow did while the one in grey restrict their samples to people who could by standard land-lines. There has long been a debate on both sides of…

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… and next week’s other election…

… and next week’s other election…

Nationals could oust Helen Clark’s Labour in New Zealand With the election in Japan now being postponed, next Saturday’s election in New Zealand might now be one of the last significant elections of the autumn, with Romania and Ukraine still to come. The Nationals have led in the opinion polls since the middle of 2006, although their lead over the Labour government of Helen Clark really took off in the first few months of 2007. In the middle of this…

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Why my 50/1 shot is going to win AND WIN BIG

Why my 50/1 shot is going to win AND WIN BIG

Has the heart gone out of McCain supporters? One of the perils of being in the political prediction business is that what you write can come back to haunt you and I have made my fair share of wrong calls. But there is one prediction of which I take enormous pride – made here on the site just four months after Bush had been installed for his second term. In support of my argument on May 26th 2005 that people…

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Now a poll that runs against the media narrative

Now a poll that runs against the media narrative

Unregistered pollster suggests a Cameron majority of 118 After a few weeks when every poll has had been presented as part of Brown’s great recovery, even if this wasn’t quite supported by the facts, we have a survey that suggests that all might not be well for Team Labour. BPIX in the Mail on Sunday has these shares with comparisons on the previous survey at the start of October – CON 45%(-1): LAB 31%(+1): LD 13%(nc). The commons seat projects…

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Could all the American polls be wrong?

Could all the American polls be wrong?

Is American polling about to experience the 1992 catastrophe? Let’s recap what we know. Every pollster in America has Barack Obama in the lead, and the vast majority of the state polls in key states imply that he should win the Electoral College quite handily. I want to begin with a premise that if John McCain wins, we won’t have seen a measurable 2-point a day shift in the polls – a Republican victory in the race for the White…

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