Why’s Labour being out-spun on “Erminegate”?

Why’s Labour being out-spun on “Erminegate”?

Should Dave have been allowed openings like this? Michael Settle of the Glasgow-based Herald sets out the scene and the dangers for Brown of Erminegate in the story that’s currently the lead on Google News UK Search. “.IT is the most toxic word in the political lexicon and is threatening to make a comeback – sleaze. The alarm in No 10 over “Erminegate” – denied allegations that four Labour peers were ready to accept money in return for amending government…

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Will Obama be the one that saves Brown?

Will Obama be the one that saves Brown?

How important is being the first leader to see him? By all accounts Brown Central is placing a lot on the relationship between their man and President Obama. The news that the race to have first phone conversation with between a European leader and Obama was won by Brown was highlighted over the weekend. Next comes the question of which of the big three – Sarkozy, Merkel or Brown – gets the first meeting. There have been reports that Brown…

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Can punters trust the seat predictors and the polls?

Can punters trust the seat predictors and the polls?

Surely the methodologies are untested with a Tory surge? Ladbrokes has got further into general election mode today with the launch of its seat markets – the first of which, for the Tories is featured above. We’ll be doing later threads on Labour and the Lib Dems. Successful betting here, I suggest, requires an understanding of the polls and familiarity with the various seat projectors which convert projected vote shares into the number of seats actually won. But how challenging…

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“Your morning papers Prime Minister….”

“Your morning papers Prime Minister….”

Which of these headlines is the most damaging? What a dreadful set of front pages for Gordon Brown to digest this morning. Not only is there the follow-up to the “cash for laws” allegations but there’s more awful polling news and and in the background the drip by drip news of jobs going up and down the country and in every sector. The release by the Times of the tape recording of the “interview” with one of the “cash for…

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ICM Tory share jumps 6 to 44

ICM Tory share jumps 6 to 44

CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6) LABOUR 32% (-1) LIB DEMS 16% (-3) But the LDs see a drop to 16% The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop. Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one…

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Will Gordon be the one that’s out first ?

Will Gordon be the one that’s out first ?

Is it time to re-visit the Hill’s market? It’s almost hard to credit the total change that we’ve seen in UK politics in the past few weeks but less than a month ago many PBers, including me got bets on at 7/4 on the market from William Hill Politics that Brown would be the first of the main party leaders to be out. Then the favourite was Nick Clegg with David Cameron the long-shot. Now prices have shifted a fair…

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Are these the votes that will decide the election?

Are these the votes that will decide the election?

Will the LAB/LD switchers will stick with Cameron? One of the great features about the pollsters that past vote weight is that you are able to look at the detailed tables and see the cross-party dynamics. Interestingly the broad figures that we get each month from the ComRes, ICM and Populus are in the same ball park and you can get a generalised view of what’s been going on. Reproduced above is an extract from the full tables highlighting how…

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Labour down to 28% with ComRes

Labour down to 28% with ComRes

CONSERVATIVES 43% (+2) LABOUR 28% (-4) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) Brown’s party now trailing by 15 points As ConservativeHome has broken the embargo I will do so as well. Tim Montgomerie should not have done that. See note below. The ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy is now out and will add to the gloom at Brown Central. For the party’s share is down to 28% – the first time it has dropped below the 30 mark in any poll from…

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