Andy Welsh Flickr How will the decade just beginning end? The turning of the decades is an opportune time to lift our gaze from the transient ephemera of polls, speeches and even by-elections to the deeper questions of where politics is headed over the next ten years and what are the drivers of that change. However, before looking forward, a brief glance back. The first decade of the 21st century has not been a good one for politics or politicians….
Was this the moment that Labour was “doomed”? In an interesting column on electoral reform today the Indy writer who often seems to be more Blairite than Blair, John Rentoul, made the following observation:- “..I am bound by that old self-denying ordinance not to name names, but something happened on 27 June 2007. That something virtually ensured that the party was doomed at the forthcoming election…” Is Rentoul being unfair. Was Brown always doomed to defeat or are we, even…
New Statesman What do we make of Kellner’s assessments? There’s a good assessment of the scale of the challenge facing Labour in the latest News Statesman from the president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, in which he examines the elements behind the recent revival in the party’s hopes. Kellner’s themes will be familiar to PB regulars. “The Conservatives’ poll lead has been shrinking.” “Well, up to a point….One much-reported MORI poll, in November, put the lead at just 6 points, but…
whatgas.com How electorally sensitive is the price of petrol? The above chart shows the average pump price for standard unleaded petrol over the past three years and one thing is striking – the high point in price in July 2008 coincided with the Tories achieving their best poll shares since the 1980s. The price dropped sharply in the second half of last year and reached a low point in December at about the same time as most polls were pointing…
Who is the PB Betting Tipster for 2009. Choose one. Richard Nabavi Morris Dancer The Twin Towers: Peter the Punter and Peter from Putney URW MORUS StJohn Roger ScottP Voting starts immediately and will continue until 10am on New Year’s Day. Please note that the modestly titled “The Twin Towers” is a join entry from two of the site’s leading gamblers who have similar user names. My vote has gone to Morus (Greg Callus) for his 50/1 Cathy Ashton…
Do the Tories do best if more people are voting? The chart above shows the actual number of votes cast for all parties from 1979 to 2005 and also the total of votes not cast (the paler blue line) from within the overall electorate each year. For 2010 I have assumed the current state of the polls CON 40%: LAN 28%: LD 19%: OTH 13% (at 75% turnout). Two shapes leap out: 1.The blue Tory and Did Not Vote (DNV)…
Brighton Pavilion Poll: CON 27% (+4) LAB 25% (-13) LD 11% (-5) GRN 35% (+14) Is it about who is best placed to impede the Tories? I’ve now got the full dataset from the ICM poll of the Brighton Pavillion constituency which suggests that the party could win its first ever Westminster MP at the general election – the headline figures, with comparisons on the 2005 general election in the seat. But it’s the detail of the poll that could…
Iain Dale’s end of year elections:- Pollster of the Year 1. YouGov 2. Angus Reid 3. ICM How could they support an untested firm? I’m sure that my friends at PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, won’t be too upset to learn that I did not vote for them as “pollster of the year” in Iain Dale’s annual elections. The Vancouver-based firm only started publishing UK voting intention surveys in October and clearly have yet to go through the process of having…