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Does the weather remind you of the winter of 78/79?

13/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And we all know what happened in the election that followed Don’t forget to enter the PB 2010 Prediction Competition if you’ve not already done so, hosted by The Election Game, and asking for predictions on the election and ICM polls amongst others. The original thread is here and this is the direct link to the competition – entries close at midnight on Friday. Anyone interested in taking part in the 2010 Election Game season, please email me here –…

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How many of these will be MPs after the election?

13/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What are the chances on the Ladbrokes Indy market? In an excellent review of the Welsh marginals on PB2 Meurig rather ducked out of a prediction for Blaenau Gwent – what was previously Labour strongest seat in Wales that was lost, of course, after the all-women short-list row in 2005 and then held onto by independent Dai Davies in the by election a year later. This is a pity because it could be key in trying to figure out the…

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Can Brown avoid being dragged into this?

13/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Was Campbell being unhelpful to Tony’s successor? On the face of it the Iraq inquiry is now a side-show to the big political drama in the UK – the fight by Labour to stop the Tories winning an outright majority in the coming general election. Labour’s key players at the time – Tony Blair and Alistair Campbell – have now moved on though it’s said that the latter is playing a behind the scenes role in supporting Mr. Brown. So…

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Could this be a shock Number 1?

12/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Simon & Garfunkel – Mrs Robinsonby Salut-les-copains PaddyPower make it a 5/1 shot I don’t know much about the world of pop music but I’ve been a life-long fan of Simon & Garfunkel. So what are we to make of the PaddyPower bet at 5/1 that “Mrs. Robinson” will make to Number 1 this month? An extraordinary coincidence given the name and the plot of that classic movie “The Graduate”. Mike Smithson

Is this the best hung parliament bet?

12/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Bet365 Should you be taking the 11/4 for 324 seat or fewer? Thanks to our regular betting poster, URW, for spotting this one – the 11/4 (in old money) or the 2.75 in the new parlance that Bet365 have on the Tories coming out with fewer that 325 seats. This total, of course, is the minimum that is required for a majority. Unlike the range of conventional hung parliament bets this covers you in all situations that Cameron Tories don’t…

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Is Angus Reid actually the best poll for Labour?

12/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Angus Reid Public Opinion It’s the only one showing them not shedding votes Our headline might sound counter-intuitive for the sixth survey in the PB/Angus Reid series, published last night, followed an established pattern and once again had 40-24-20 the smallest share for Labour of all the firms. Yet unlike all the other pollsters to have reported so far in 2010 Angus Reid is the only one that has the party currently led by Mr. Brown at the same level…

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The Tories up 3 – Labour down 2 with Populus

11/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

CON 41 % (38) LAB 28 % (30) LD 19 %(20) But Peter Riddell thinks its good for Gordon The second poll of the night, from Populus for the Times, is the first to show what could be real damage from the splits over Labour’s leadership. The figures above show the scale which will hit Labour hard because it comes from the pollster that has tended to produce the best numbers for the party and the lowest for the Tories…

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It’s no change in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll

11/1/2010 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

CON 40% (40) LAB 24% (24) LD 20% (20) The least volatile pollster retains it reputation There’s a new poll this evening from PB’s pollster, Angus Reid Public Opinion which shows no change whatsoever on the last survey before Christmas. This is the fifth survey in the exclusive PB series which has built up a remarkable record for consistency. Since we started in October the Tories have been on 40 in three polls, and on 39 and 38 in the…

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