Will Labour be overstated again There is one “rule” of polling PB regulars will know well. We call it “The Golden Polling Rule”. This is that whenever polls have been tested against real election results it’s been the survey with Labour in the least favourable position that has been the most accurate. This is not just a modern phenomenon – but has going going on in Westminster, Euro and London Mayoral elections since at least the 1980s. Just look at…
Populus without DK adjustment Unadjusted Reported CONSERVATIVES 37.1% 37% LABOUR 25.5% 28% LIB DEMS 28.4% 27% ICM without DK adjustment Unadjusted Reported CONSERVATIVES 37.3% 36% LABOUR 26.3% 28% LIB DEMS 26.3% 26% Do the formulas work in a 3-way fight? I’ve raised before here about the methodology that three of the phone pollsters use to deal with those in their polls who say they will be voting but won’t say who for. ICM and Populus two allocate a proportion of…
Could it top the 70% threshold? From reports from around the country it seems that polling stations have been busy and that turnout looks set to quite high – certainly above the 61% of 2005. At one polling station near me the number who’d voted in the first hour was four times higher than at the same location last October for Bedford’s mayoral by election when it was over 30%. More young people seem to be turning out. This is,…
Seat spreads CON LAB LD Betfair 319½-321 217½-220 82½-85½ Extrabet 316-321 218-223 78-82 SportingIndex 317-322 214-219 78-82 Majority betting CON NOM LAB LD Ladbrokes 5/4 4/6 25/1 66/1 Political Smarkets 39% 60% 3% 1% This is basically a thread for a matter of record. So often people ask whether political betting is predictive and I always refer to the opening markets just as the polling station threw open their doors across the country. Site traffic: Yesterday our main servers dealt…
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ICM Guardian May 4 May 2 CONSERVATIVES 36% 33% LABOUR 28% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 28% Lib Dems now joint second with ComRes ComRes: ITV News/Indy May 4 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 37% 37% LABOUR 28% 29% LIB DEMS 28% 26% Mike Smithson
Angus Reid/Politicalbetting Will the “Golden Rule apply again” Angus Reid/Politicalbetting May 5 May 1 CONSERVATIVES 36% 35% LABOUR 24% 23% LIB DEMS 29% 29% Lib Dems jump 4 with YouGov YouGov – the Sun May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 35% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 28% 24% Labour move up three with Harris Harris- Daily Mail May 5 May 4 CONSERVATIVES 35% 36% LABOUR 29% 26% LIB DEMS 27% 28% Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr…
Will they all produce figures in the same broad area? Populus – The Times Populus/The Times May 5 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 37% 36% LABOUR 28% 27% LIB DEMS 27% 28% TNS-BMRB TNS – BMRB May 4 Apr 27 CONSERVATIVES 33% 34% LABOUR 27% 27% LIB DEMS 29% 30% Opinium – Daily Express Opinium – D. Express May 5 May 3 CONSERVATIVES 35% 33% LABOUR 27% 28% LIB DEMS 26% 27%