politicalbetting.com

EdM/NC/DC aggregate net negative ratings=121% Cameron’s personal YouGov ratings now worse than Gordon Brown’s before the 2010 election. Dave’s on -27%, Brown was on -19%. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 1, 2012 Ed Miliband is on -41% from YouGov – down just 4 on the week.Ed’s latest number 12 points better than his lowest level. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) April 1, 2012 Nick Clegg’s YouGov ratings down a net 7 on week to minus 53. That’s 3% up on his…

Read More Read More

The “old way” failed to deliver for Labour While I was at Tesco yesterday, I bumped into a local Labour politician who knows the ground there well, who was involved in Labour’s campaign and whose judgement I trust. I put it to him that I expected Labour to win by about 11,000. He said that two weeks ago, so did they. Before going too far into the minutiae, some context. Bradford West was frequently misdescribed in the media as a…

Read More Read More

But no voting intention numbers There’s a new ComRes poll in the Sindy and Sunday Mirror which the former is splashing on its front page. There are, apparently no voting intention questions and I assume that the firm will have followed its usual practice of not past vote weighting non-VI surveys. As can be expected the numbers don’t look good for the blue team and some appear on the Sindy’s front page above. The big change has been in perceptions…

Read More Read More

Betfair Politics Can we expect his successor to be a comprehensive boy/girl? There’s been a bit of movement on the Betfair next Tory leader market for David Davis who is now second favourite. There is almost no liquidity in the betting and in betting terms this doesn’t mean very much. It does however provide a peg to raise the question about what the next Tory leader’s background will be and here I make a prediction – for like David Davis…

Read More Read More

If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints, please contact her at marfcartoons@btinternet.com

Betfair Politics Should I cash out now? Here’s a betting conundrum. Over the months I’ve been trading on the Betfair Republican nominee market and am set to win a four figure sum if Mitt Romney makes it. If he doesn’t then I don’t lose a thing though my winnings on Santorum, Paul or Gingrich would be only about £100. Given the ability to back and lay on Betfair I could cash in my entire Romney position now and ensure that,…

Read More Read More

What if LAB fails to win back city hall as well? No quibbling – Bradford West was a disaster for both LAB and its leader. To fall so far back with real voters in a real election after a period when the coalition has been on the back foot is hard to excuse. Much is being made of the size of the Asian communities within the constituency – but according to the 2001 census 43% are Asian, and 52.6% are…

Read More Read More

Candidate Party Votes cast % share % change   George Galloway RESPECT 18341 55.9 +52.8   Imran Hussain LAB 8201 25 -20.3   Jackie Whiteley CON 2746 8.4 -22.7   Jeanette Sunderland LD 1505 4.6 -7.1   Sonja McNally UKIP 1085 3.3 +1.3   Dawud Islam Green 481 1.5 -0.8 Was for many this about giving LAB a bloody nose? Just looking at the numbers compared with the general election and it’s clear that there was a huge anti-LAB tactical…

Read More Read More