Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

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Pie chart show how vote splits in Aschroft’s Corby by-election poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 48% of the Corby voters who supported Louise Mensch in 2010 tell Ashcroft’s poll that they’ll vote CON in by-election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Surprisingly given national polls only 5% of 2010 CON voters in Corby say they’ll be voting UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 2 out of 1,503 sample tell Ashcroft’s Corby…

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Debate 3: A clear victory for Obama

Debate 3: A clear victory for Obama

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The chart above shows the change in the Romney price on the biggest White House betting market of all – Intrade. The trend is very clear – Intrade punters, many of them in the US, were putting their money on Obama and selling Romney. Taegan Goddard’s verdict – Obama wins hands down bit.ly/OXN4qW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 BREAKING: CBS NEWS INSTANT POLL Who won the #Debate? OBAMA: 53%; ROMNEY: 23%, TIE: 24% (Margin of Error: 4%; Sample…

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The third and final Romney-Obama debate

The third and final Romney-Obama debate

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The third debate opens with the focus on the middle east twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

ICM has the LAB lead down 2 to 8 percent

ICM has the LAB lead down 2 to 8 percent

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The breakdown in the Guardian of tonight’s ICM poll which has the LAB lead down from 10% to 8% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2012 The monthly phone poll from firm “most trusted” by PBers On the economy ICM finds 31% preferring Cameron and Osborne, as against 27% for 2Eds. In Dec 2011 Dave/George had 21% lead — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2012 Among pensioners ICM has CON retaining a 46%-32% lead. With 25-34 age group it’sLAB…

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The battle-grounds with just a fortnight to go

The battle-grounds with just a fortnight to go

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Ohio (18 electoral college votes)   Virginia (13 electoral college votes)   Florida (29 electoral college votes)   Iowa (6 electoral college votes)   Will tonight’s final debate change the direction? This is so so close and I now finding I’m checking the early voting data (good link here) several times as day to see if there’s any discernible movement. My current betting position is that I’m now back on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which…

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Dave is starting to edge into the “leader most at risk” slot

Dave is starting to edge into the “leader most at risk” slot

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Clegg is now equally or more secure in his position as leader than Cameron. These Hills odds look attractive twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2012 Why my Mitchell exit winnings went on Clegg lasting longer On Satruday I reinvested the projected profits from the Mitchell exit bets on the William Hill market on which of Cameron or Clegg would last longer as party leader. At the time the odds were 1/7 Cameron and 4/1 Clegg. Given that think…

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From a seven point Romney lead to a six point Obama one….

From a seven point Romney lead to a six point Obama one….

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That is tonight’s range of national White House polls Gallup: Romney 52%, Obama 45% IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, Romney 42% NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Obama 47%, Romney 47% Public Policy Polling: Obama 48%, Romney 48% Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 47% And tomorrow night there’s the third and final debate. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB