Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

Can the king of “dog-whistle” politics deliver Dave an overall majority in 2015

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Will new Tory campaign boss,Lynton Crosby,go back to his 2005 ads for Michael Howard like this one? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Or are there dangers in Lynton’s Crosby’s approach? The big political news of the day has been the appointment by David Cameron of the Australian campaign guru, Lynton Crosby, to run the Tory 2015 general election campaign. Crosby is no stranger to these shores. Back in 2005 he was hired by Dave’s predecessor, Michael Howard,…

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The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

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If ComRes is right the Tories are seriously over-estimating the potential for UKIP switching bit.ly/RKTZ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Just 18% of current UKIP voters say they’d “consider” the Tories From the three online polls that have come out overnight there is one sets of findings that stand out – the responses to the ComRes “potential to switch” question. Poll participants were asked after giving their party choice what other parties they could see themselves “seriously…

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New ComRes online poll for S. Mirror and Indy on Sunday has LAB lead at it highest level for 7 years

New ComRes online poll for S. Mirror and Indy on Sunday has LAB lead at it highest level for 7 years

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LAB moves to its biggest ever lead in a ComRes poll. See table. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53790 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 And there’s goodish news for UKIP & the LDs ComRes operate two entirely separate polls. The monthly phone surveys for the Independent and a much less expensive online poll for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent. Tonight we have the latter with the shares above. The voting intention shares are showing the trend seen in the week’s only…

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Just about Labour’s best PCC result was the victory in Bedfordshire – the Nadine effect?

Just about Labour’s best PCC result was the victory in Bedfordshire – the Nadine effect?

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Bedfordshire was LAB’s best PCC result. At the gen election it was 17% behind. The Nadine effect? www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53787 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 At the 2010 general election the aggregate vote in the Bedfordshire police authority area was CON 44.91 LAB 27.28 LD 20.7 yet on Thursday Labour managed to win the Police Commissioner vote in what looks like its best result nationally. Interestingly turnout was higher in the urban areas of Luton and Bedford compared with…

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November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

November 15th 2012 – A slap in the face for politics

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What are we to make of the dismal turnout? The November 2012 elections were meant to go down in history as the start of a brave new era of direct democracy. They will go down in history but not for that reason. The May referendums put the first dent in the plan, when all the cities bar Bristol voted down the mayoral option. The second, and more significant, hit was delivered by the mass abstentions on Thursday. While a low…

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How the supplementary vote electoral system deprived the first-past-the-post winner, John Prescott, of victory

How the supplementary vote electoral system deprived the first-past-the-post winner, John Prescott, of victory

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How “first past the post” winner Prescott became a loser. The 2nd preferences splitagainst him. bbc.in/UvwQ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 Only problem John: YOUR government designed this system in 2000 Looking at the outcome in Humberside you can perhaps forgive John Prescott for being so angry about the voting system. For if this had operated on first past the post he would have been celebrating his victory tonight. I wonder whether he recalls how in the…

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LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

LAB moves to its best position yet in the general election betting

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Betfair punters now make LAB a 40.7% chance of securinga general election majority.Tories drop to 22.2%. NOM on 38.2% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 And the Tories slump to their worst position After a dramatic day of elections the Betfair market now rates the chances of a Labour majority government at just over 40%. The party had been joint favourite with “no overall majority” (NOM) prior to these latest results. The big message from Corby is that…

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The counts continue…

The counts continue…

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Afactor driving the low turnout in the #PCCwas that there was virtually no national media coverage because no election in London — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 “Bugger off!” Prescott tells waiting journalists — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) November 16, 2012 PCS union says low PCC turnout “should sound death knell for Tory-led cries for thresholds for union ballots” – bit.ly/UKftOM — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) November 16, 2012