A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

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EdM’s poorest PMQs for some time. Didn’t seem to engage. Cameron meanwhile has a goodperformance. Dave 8/10 EdM 5/10 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 My Tweet on PMQs gives my verdict – Cameron was much better and in greater control today while for Ed Miliband it was a PMQs to forget. Why he chose the NHS, something that is hardly a current issue, for a his round of questions really looked odd. It didn’t work. Also today…

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Rand Paul’s 2016 GOP nomination price moves into to 33-1 following TV comments that he’d be interested in running

Rand Paul’s 2016 GOP nomination price moves into to 33-1 following TV comments that he’d be interested in running

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Rand Paul,son of Ron,becomes the first to go public on his interest in GOP2016 nomination.I got 50/1 last night twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 Last night I got a bet on at 50/1 with PaddyPower that Rand Paul, the son of 2012 GOP contender, Ron Paul, would be the nominee for the 2016 race. Thanks to HYUFD on the previous thread for tipping us off about Paul’s TV interview in which he spoke about his interest. This…

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UPDATE: PB-William Hill White House 2012 prediction competition

UPDATE: PB-William Hill White House 2012 prediction competition

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As the final millions of #WH2012 votes continue to be counted Obama moves to a 3.13% lead.bit.ly/S7MJ5m twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 It could be 3 weeks before we know the winning margin It’s two weeks now since Barack Obama won his second terms – but the counting goes on and it could be three weeks before we have a definitive winning margin down to 2 decimal points on which we can award the prizes. In many…

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Ladbrokes make it odds-on that Nadine won’t be an MP after the next general election

Ladbrokes make it odds-on that Nadine won’t be an MP after the next general election

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Ladbrokes make it evens that Nadine will be re-elected as an MP (for any party) and 8/11 she isn’t bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 Is this a realistic assessment of her chances? If the voting in “I’m a celebrity get me out of here” goes against her then the Central Bedfordshire Tory MP, Nadine Dorries, will be heading back to the UK quite soon. No doubt her first appointment will be a meeting (without coffee as…

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Hills resumes betting on an EU referendum (7-4) and a UK exit (7/1) before 2020. Value bets?

Hills resumes betting on an EU referendum (7-4) and a UK exit (7/1) before 2020. Value bets?

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Hills have re-opened EU betting market. Now 7/4 on a referendum & 7/1 on a UK exit Now bit.ly/u6wr8r twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012 There’s been a big political betting rush overnight following the opening by William Hill on Britain’s membership of the EU. Initially one bet had 2/1 that there’d be a referendum before 2020 and the other 10/1 that there’s be a UK exit in the same period. My Tweet sparked off a lot of…

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ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

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The party breakdown & changes in this month’s ICM phone poll – which has UKIP at a record high for the firm. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 LAB is leading by 47% to 30% amongst women in tonight’s ICM poll. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 The CON share of 32% from ICM is the second lowest from the firm since David Cameron became leader in Dec 2005 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 Cameron’s…

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How the punters’ views of Ed Miliband’s chances of becoming PM are changing

How the punters’ views of Ed Miliband’s chances of becoming PM are changing

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Since September at Ladbrokes Ed Miliband has moved from a 45% chance of becoming PM before 2020 to a 60% one twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 But is the 4/6 price now too tight? From a betting standpoint EdM has had a good 12 months. Three big things have happened. The Osborne budget in March was a turning point and became the peg for the media narrative on the competence of Dave/George. Since then LAB has enjoyed…

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Henry G Manson says LAB should consider the 2006 Dave the Chameleon approach to undermine Cameron

Henry G Manson says LAB should consider the 2006 Dave the Chameleon approach to undermine Cameron

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Is it more relevant and pointed now than it was then? Six and a half years ago the Labour Party launched a party political broadcast aiming to highlight how David Cameron would say whatever his audience or ‘target demographic’ wanted to hear. At the time I was struck by how many people were prepared to give Cameron the benefit of the doubt. It didn’t have traction. I think this is less the case now. The respray he gave his party…

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