If Sir Simon Clarke is correct then we could see a vote of confidence in Sunak very soon (which I expect him to win). One of the factors that should help Sunak survive is this poll from Opinium which shows the Tories are going to be experience their own Battle of Adrianople at the next general election no matter who leads them with only Penny Mordaunt achieving a better result than Sunak. This poll also confirms that if the Tories…
These focus groups has come up with a fantastic analogy. For some of these former Conservatives, the paradoxical appeal of a change of government was stability: “If the Tories did get back in they’d go for a new leader and then it will be catastrophe all over again. So as much as I’m not really a Labour supporter, I feel a change of government would stabilise things;” “It feels like we’ve got alcoholic parents. Everything’s crazy and then the next…
When a cult takes over a political party there is a tendency to tell existing supporters to go and vote for somebody else, we saw this with some Corbynites which explains why Corbyn lost two general elections in a row. Seeing the clip above did bring back some memories but from a betting point of view it might be time to start thinking about laying the GOP taking back control of the Senate in November. So there’s three main reasons…
On Tuesday I wrote about Sunak’s latest plan which involved Susan Hall winning the London Mayoral election which would allow Sunak to get out of jail, I remain doubtful of such hopes and today’s Savanta poll reinforces those doubts and the Betfair market seems to think it is a done deal for Khan as do I. Chris Hopkins of Savanta has written a thread on why Khan’s lead may not as be as impressive as it first seems. TSE
It seems these days every days seems to bring a new poll showing Sunak and the Tories hitting new lows that may rival the ratings of Liz Truss, the UK’s shortest serving Prime Minister. There’s two points to consider, firstly if the Tories and Sunak remain this unpopular then the polls may be underestimating them when tactical voting is considered, because my view is the higher the unpopularity the more anti-Tory tactical voting will take place. Secondly, if the polls…
Today marks the 20th birthday of Politicalbetting and also my retirement from the site. I had hoped to stay with the site till the general election and the American presidential vote in the November Unfortunately my health is deteriorating and I have been doing far less on PB. Our site is probably one of the oldest political sites on the internet and we were founded before Guido Conservative home and so on. Thank you to all of you, It has…
I think the Telegraph are reading too much into Penny Mordaunt’s (lack of) comments. However this is a febrile time with today’s YouGov poll showing the Tories hitting Truss levels of support and a mere 4% ahead of Reform, crossover between the possible is a possibility in the near future. If that does happen with Reform ahead of the Tories in the polls then the bowels of the Parliamentary Tory Party will loosen and the result will be an internal…
This analysis is required reading for anybody who thinks sticking the Reform share of the vote (or a large percentage of that vote) to the Tory share of the vore is what will happen at the general election. I suspect Sunak’s wooing of these voters will also not be effective. TSE