It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

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Should the poll have been CON 32:LAB 37%:LD 11%:UKIP 13%? It appears that part of the 4% drop in the Ukip ComRes share is down to revised methodlogy by the pollster. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 ComRes appears to have gone back to old formula with minor parties of only including the 100% certains. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 Anthony Wells reckons that without the methodology changes ComRes would have beenCON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%,…

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CON up 5 – Ukip down 4 percent in new ComRes online poll

CON up 5 – Ukip down 4 percent in new ComRes online poll

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ComRes online for Indy on Snday/S Mirror: CON 33 +5 LAB 39 nc LD 11+2 Ukip 10-4.Details –www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55948 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 Is Dave’s IN-OUT strategy starting to work? The general rule, when you see changes like the UKIP drop, is to wait for other pollsters to see if they follow the same trend. Amongst other findings in the poll from ComRes for tomorrow Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror.   Cameron versus Miliband David…

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Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

Davd Herdson: Cameron must be clear that he might vote No

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David Herdson says that Cameron cannot go on avoiding the key EU questions www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55937 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 He can’t go on dodging the question? David Cameron’s speech on the UK’s future relationship with the EU has certainly set the political agenda for the week. Almost as soon as he made it, however, two questions were asked that will dog him if he continues to answer as he did at the time: what specifically do you…

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EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board

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How the millions of Lib Dem to LAB switchers have made Miiband’s party’s supporter base more pro-EU. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Henry G Manson: Marginal voters matters more This week’s stance taken by Labour on the EU caused some surprise among one or two folk. The Guardian reported that some Labour MPs were twitchy about it. Many of them had tactical concerns that Labour would appear that it was effectively not trusting the public. That is…

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The speech: Dave sees increases in his personal quality ratings although voting intention numbers have barely moved

The speech: Dave sees increases in his personal quality ratings although voting intention numbers have barely moved

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First full YouGov poll taken entirely after CAM speech – CON 33:LAB 43:LD 10: Ukip 9. Chart shows full week’s polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Cameron’s personal quality ratings move up sharply following his big speech – see YouGov table twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Today’s Populus37% STAY 40% LEAVE EU poll compares with firm’s survey in Jun ’12 when 36% said REMAIN and 44% said they didn’t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January…

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Can we expect referendum boost for the blues in tonight’s LD-CON local election spats?

Can we expect referendum boost for the blues in tonight’s LD-CON local election spats?

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Harry Hayfield prevews the contests Highbridge and Burnham Marine (Sedgemoor) Last Local Election (2011): Conservatives 31, Labour 13, Liberal Democrats 2, Independents 2 (Conservative overall majority of 14) Result at last election (2011): Lib Dem 782 Ind 705 Ind 543 Lib Dem 528 Con 516 Lib Dem 511 Con 473 Con 471 Lab 451 Lab 379 Lab 351 (1 Lib Dem HOLD, 2 Independent GAINS from Lib Dem) After last week’s urban dominated by-elections, we travel to the rural wilds…

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Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

Mapping the CON polling bounce following the Cameron EU veto at 0400 Dec 9th 2011

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Dave’s veto bounce with YouGov on 09/12/11. It happened at 0400 during fieldwork for Dec 8/9.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 Correctly there has been a lot of discussion over the timing of the fieldwork for today’s YouGov and I thought it useful to look at what happened on the night of the Cameron EU veto Dec 8/9 2011. Fieldwork for the poll began on the evening before as per usual and continued the following day….

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LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

LAB lead moves up 2 points to 12 percent in first post-speech polling

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LAB lead 12% in first post Cameron EU speech daily poll CON 31(nc): LAB 43(+2): LD 11(-1):Ukip 10(nc). twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2013 We need to wait till weekend before getting proper picture If YouGov were following their usual pattern fieldwork would have started at 5pm on Tuesday evening and continued until 5pm yesterday. We do not know what proportion of the sample was before and afterwards and whether there was any difference in the response pattern….

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