The Lib Dems drop to their lowest level with Ipsos-MORI since 1990

The Lib Dems drop to their lowest level with Ipsos-MORI since 1990

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Chart showing fuller detail on today’s Ipsos-MORI poll. Amongst all voters UKIP on 7% but 9 with those certain to vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2013 And UKIP get 3rd place in a phone survey for first time The pie chart says it all. LAB hold a 13% lead over CON and the LDs slip behind UKIP for the first time in a phone poll. This is seriously bad news for the party and for Nick Clegg…

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If the bookies are right the chances of an in-out EU referendum look bleak

If the bookies are right the chances of an in-out EU referendum look bleak

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And even if there is the vote will be to remain With two days to go before Dave’s big speech here are some of the latest betting odds with each of the major firms defining it differently. Ladbrokes make it a 4/1 chance that there’ll be an EU Membership Referendum by 2015 with 1/6 that it won’t William Hill make it 7/4 that there’ll be a Referendum in the UK on EU membership before 2020. The firm is also offering…

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UKIP down at 2009 actual vote share in first YouGov 2014 Euro elections poll

UKIP down at 2009 actual vote share in first YouGov 2014 Euro elections poll

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UKIP down to 2009 actual vote level in first YouGov Euro elections poll. LAB +22, CON -1 LD -2 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2013 Surely Farage’s party should be doing better? The first YouGov poll fr the June 2014 Euro elections has, somewhat surprisingly, UKIP at exactly the same level as they achieved in June 2009. Given recent Westminster voting intention polling there had been speculation that UKIP could even finish in first place. Well they might…

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A reminder – the main cause of pro-LAB bias in the electoral system is not the boundaries but lower turnout levels in LAB-held seats

A reminder – the main cause of pro-LAB bias in the electoral system is not the boundaries but lower turnout levels in LAB-held seats

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The new boundaries wouldn’t have solved main driver of pro-LAB bias in system – lower turnout in LAB seats. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 15, 2013 I’ve published this chart before which is based on data prepared by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University and others after the 2010 general election and seeks to show one of the big drivers of “electoral bias”. The first set of data shows the average electorate in LAB and CON constituencies…

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The boundary changes are nearly dead

The boundary changes are nearly dead

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The unelected “Lords” vote on how MPs are elected. The boundary changes are almost dead. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 See full BBC report here.

Why my 10-1 bet on the UK leaving the EU is doomed

Why my 10-1 bet on the UK leaving the EU is doomed

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Latest ComRes suggests that even CON voters have little appetite for full withdrawal from EU. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 Voters might dislike the EU but “full withdrawal” is a step too far With Cameron’s big EU speech only a week or do away there’s been a fair amount of media attention and, of course, more polling. Still when people are asked how they would vote in an “In/Out” referendum the polls suggest an exit…

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Announcing Bercow Betting – the new weekly political market from PaddyPower

Announcing Bercow Betting – the new weekly political market from PaddyPower

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PaddyPower launch a weekly PMQ betting market on number of Bercow interventions.bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 Bet on how many times the Speaker will intervene at PMQs One of the great problems with political betting is that there is no regular event which you can have a punt on. Almost all the markets are on things that can be months or years ahead. In the past a number of bookies have tred to create weekly markets…

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