The boundaries: At least, either way, it will all be over tonight

The boundaries: At least, either way, it will all be over tonight

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+++Breaking CON loses #GE2015 +++@tnewtondunnAngus Robertson to confirm SNP WILL vote against the Govt and the boundaries review tonight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Tory boundary changes rebels: Glyn Davies, Philip Davies, David Davis. — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) January 29, 2013 Latest #GE2015 Commons seats line betting prices from Ladbrokes: CON 278.5: LAB 309.5: LD 32.5. You bet evens up/downbit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Unless there is some remarkably bad management by the LAB and…

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The #GE2010 seats:votes ratio hardly suggests that the electoral system is biased against the Tories

The #GE2010 seats:votes ratio hardly suggests that the electoral system is biased against the Tories

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Based on the 2010 SEATS:VOTES ratio it’s hard to argue that the electoral system is biased against Tories. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013 Other parties have much stronger cases We are here. The day that the Commons decide on the boundaries issue and no doubt there’ll be lots of moans and groans from Team Blue about how the system is biased against them. But is that the case? Based on how many voters it required…

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The Ukip rise continues in the first phone poll since Cameron’s speech

The Ukip rise continues in the first phone poll since Cameron’s speech

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In sharp contrast to online polls the 1st phone survey since Dave’s EU speech has Ukip up to 10%. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=55988 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2013 ComRes/Indy poll has CON 32/LAB 39/LD 10/Ukip 10 We now only get three telephone polls each month which is a great pity. They cost a lot more to mount than an online survey and I take them more seriously. Tonight’s ComRes poll for the Independent sees the Tories gaining a bit of…

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The new HS2 route serves areas with a heavy concentration of marginals – a winner or a loser at #GE2015

The new HS2 route serves areas with a heavy concentration of marginals – a winner or a loser at #GE2015

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The HS2 route to the Midlands & North where a high proportion of the marginals are. An electoral winner or loser? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2013 Is the plan right in spite of NIMBY noise? The day’s big announcement has been the extension of the HS2 ine from Birmingham to the East Midland and the North West – all areas with a high proportion of the country’s marginal seats. Come April/May 2015 this will be where a…

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Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

Why Ukip might be a good bet to win more votes than the Tories in #EU2014

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Ladbrokes make it evens that Ukip will outpoll CON in #EU2014.Might be a good bet. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 28, 2013 Ladbrokes have a match bet market on which of CON and Ukip will do better in terms of votes at #EU2014 which take place in eighteen months time. Note that with the bet where LAB finish is irrelevant, It’s a straight fight between the blues and purples with, for the moment, CON being the odds-on favourite…

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Nadine Dorries says that one of these 4 is likely to be Cameron’s successor

Nadine Dorries says that one of these 4 is likely to be Cameron’s successor

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Nadine’s 4 to follow for the CON leadership: Boris 7/2, Gove 15/2,Norman & Afriyie 33/1telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2013 After the big headline in several papers today about the leadership ambitions of Windor MP, Adam Afriyie, Nadine Dorries has been giving her advice. The two names who are least known as Jesse Norman (leader of the Lords rebellion which cost the blues the boundary changes & 20 seats) and Adam Afriyie who is said to be…

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The Cameron EU speech seems to be having the desired effect across the polls: CON gets closer and Ukip down

The Cameron EU speech seems to be having the desired effect across the polls: CON gets closer and Ukip down

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Tories UP, LDs UP. Ukip DOWN in all the post Cameron speech polls in the Sundays twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2013 The big question is whether it will be sustained? There are four polls in the Sundays, all alas online, and the message from those carried out from Thursday onwards is that the Tories and Liberal Democrats are up and Ukip is down. The fieldwork for a fourth poll by Opinium for the Observer was mostly done…

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It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

It seems that changed methodology was a big driver of the changes in the ComRes poll

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Should the poll have been CON 32:LAB 37%:LD 11%:UKIP 13%? It appears that part of the 4% drop in the Ukip ComRes share is down to revised methodlogy by the pollster. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 ComRes appears to have gone back to old formula with minor parties of only including the 100% certains. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2013 Anthony Wells reckons that without the methodology changes ComRes would have beenCON 32%, LAB 37%, LD 11%,…

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