Concern about immigration the biggest mover in the February Issues Index from Ipsos-MORI

Concern about immigration the biggest mover in the February Issues Index from Ipsos-MORI

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Feb Ipsos MORI Issues index has immigration the biggest riser.Economy still top. EU still doesn’t make top 10 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 22, 2013 The regular polling that measures salience The monthly isssues index from Ipsos-MORI is one of my favourite regular surveys because it is the only one that is designed to measure how salient people’s concerns are. This is done by having the interviews take place face-to-face and to ask what that sampled see as the…

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Henry G Manson on what LAB voters should do in the battle for Eastleigh

Henry G Manson on what LAB voters should do in the battle for Eastleigh

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Ladbrokes up/down #Eastleigh vote shate mkt now has CON’s Maria Hutchings at 29%. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 The aim should be to punish Cameron next Thursday It’s been easy for Labour supporters and MPs to focus all their fire on Liberal Democrats these last few years. There was a time when many believed the Coalition would not last the distance and that dumping on the Liberal Democrats was key to breaking it up and triggering…

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The run up to Eastleigh: Tories suffer 2nd local by-election set-back in 3 days following big move to Ukip

The run up to Eastleigh: Tories suffer 2nd local by-election set-back in 3 days following big move to Ukip

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RT @juvelad: #cromer by-election results. Lib dem gain #libdems 558, lab 240, ukip 218, torys 18140.6% turn out #lgbtld >>Jesus wept. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) February 22, 2013 @davidppritchard Tories had held it before. Went from 1st to 4th. — Iain Dale (@IainDale) February 22, 2013 Another gain for the Lib Dems With all eyes looking for pointers on Eastleigh the Tories have suffered another big local by-election blow with the Lib Dems chalking up their second gain in three…

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The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote

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Big split in betting opinion on Ukip’s chances of winning #Eastleigh. PaddyPower have it at 25/1 – Ladbrokes now 12/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 Farage’s party will do better than we think All the reports I am getting from Eastleigh suggest that Ukip is going to do well in the by-election next Thursday and those who took my advice on Monday to back them in the LAB vote match markets are likely to end up as…

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Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

Why the Speccie’s James Forsyth thinks the Eastleigh Lib Dems are a “racing certainty”

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A bitterly cold Thursday morning in #Eastleigh. twitter.com/AdLibMag/statu… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 The by-election is all about the power of the party databases There’s an excellent feature in the latest Spectator by political editor, James Forsyth, in which he gets to the heart of why the yellows should hold the seat. It’s all about the data and how it’s deployed. Forsyth writes: “… While the Tories are knocking on doors trying to find supporters, the Lib Dems…

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The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

The CON Eastleigh campaign goes into damage limitation mode for the final week

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Latest Lib Dem poster highlighting CON candidate absence from this morning’s 5live hustings. twitter.com/NickThornsby/s… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013 .@timfarron on Hutchings no-show tmrw at 5Live Eastleigh special: “You hv to ask why the Conservative machine keeps trying to hide her away” — Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) February 20, 2013 On balance keeping Hutchings off 5live today was correct No doubt the post mortem on the CON Eastleigh campaign will focus how the party found itself lumbered with a…

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Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

Pic of the day? Boris telling Tim Montgomerie that he is opposed to the mansion tax

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Boris explaining ro Tim Montgomerie that he was wrong on mansion taxes. twitpic.com/c5erpe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Just another campaign visit to Eastleigh This is Michael White’s report of the Mayor’s 30 minutes of door-knocking in Eastleigh. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

Guido joins the rush to bet on the yellows in Eastleigh

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#Eastleigh. Further moves to LDs & Ukip for 3rd based on ACTUAL latest Betfair bets. LD 75% chance, CON 20% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 LDs#Eastleigh: 4/11 Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6, 1/3 Hills bit.ly/u6wr 2/7 Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk &PaddyPower — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013 Why Guido is betting heavily on a yellow victory in #Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2013