We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

We should get the first indications of the way #Eastleigh is going at midnight

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First Eastleigh poll coming at midnight, courtesy of Lord Ashcroft. Will ruffle a few feathers. — James Chapman (Mail) (@jameschappers) February 7, 2013 What does Chapman’s “ruffle a few feathers” mean? The big news for Eastleigh punters is that we are going to see the first by-election poll at midnight. It’s been commissioned by Lord Ashcroft which probably means that it was carried out by Populus. Almost certainly it will be a phone poll. The only indication of what it…

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If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

If the betting markets have got #Eastleigh right then the Tories are heading for a senstational by-election victory

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Grant Shapps tough comments about the #Eastleigh LDs seems to be the driver of big swing in betting towards CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 By-election to be held on Feb 28 The tough comments by CON chair, Grant Shapps/Michael Green, saying that Eastleigh voters had been let down by the lies of Lib Dems seem to have been the driver behind today’s betting which now sees the Tories odds-on with all the online firms apart from…

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So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

So far, at least, Clegg and the Lib Dems do not seem to be paying a price for last week’s veto on the boundary changes

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So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 Is it now just a footnote? Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries. There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to…

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If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

If the #Eastleigh swing is in line with today’s YouGov poll then the Tories would squeeze it by just just one fifth of a percent

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Pie chart with today’s YouGov shares showing changes on the national GB figures from #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013 At #GE2010 the Lib Dems held Eastleigh with a lead over the Conservatives of just 7.2%. So the swing required for victory is 3.6%. Today’s YouGov shows a swing to the Tories of 3.8% since 2010 – or just slightly ahead of what is required. The normal way of calculating swings by taking the gap between the…

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The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

The real problem for the Tories over same sex marriage is that once again they appear divided

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This must be the most worrying poll finding for the Tories at the moment. They appear divided. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 5, 2013 It has been said many times before that the one thing that is a big turn-off for voters is for a party to appear divided. This arguably has a much greater impact on electoral outcomes than a particular stance on a specific issue. So the big danger for the Tories in the same sex marriage…

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