Lib Dems have a 3 percent lead in Eastleigh according to new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday

Lib Dems have a 3 percent lead in Eastleigh according to new Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday

Comments 0 Comment

The LDs take a 3% lead in Survation #Eastleigh by-elecion poll for Mail on Sunday. CON 33: LAB 13; LD 36: Ukip 16. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 And LAB is FOURTH place behind Ukip The second poll of the Eastleigh by-election campaign is just out. It is a telephone poll carried out by Survation for the Mail on Sunday and the broad picture it shows it quite similar to the Michael Ashcroft survey on Thursday night….

Read More Read More

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer on the #Eastleigh tactical voting dilemma

Ex-LAB MP Nick Palmer on the #Eastleigh tactical voting dilemma

Comments 0 Comment

The Ashcroft #Eastleigh polling data that might be worrying to the Tories – the numbers supporting tactical voting twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2013 How will Labour supporters vote in the by-election? The first poll makes it pretty obvious that the Eastleigh result will hinge on whether the LibDems can squeeze the Labour vote or not. So how will a typical Labour voter think? Assume you think the Government is rubbish, you really dislike the Tories and think…

Read More Read More

Is Clegg safe till 2015 now?

Is Clegg safe till 2015 now?

Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson looks at the Lib Dem leadership  Chris Huhne’s conviction and resignation from parliament has had many consequences, not the least of which is a very interesting by-election.  If the Lib Dems lose, it’s likely to put serious pressure on the coalition; if the Tories lose, it raises questions as to whether they can gain enough Lib Dem seats at the next election to form a government, even if they can claw back Labour’s lead; if both lose, it…

Read More Read More

#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

#Eastleigh: The betting moves a notch towards the LDs after the Ashcroft poll

Comments 0 Comment

#Eastleigh: Bet365, PaddyPower, Coral & Hills make the LDs odds on FAV. Ladbrokes & Stan James have both CON&LD at evens. Betfair LD the FAV — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 @opusdeath I plan to make an #Easteigh call once the LD have selected their candidate & maybe we have more polling — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 It’s been a day of consolidation on the by-election betting markets following the publication of Michael Ashcroft’s telephone poll. Although…

Read More Read More

The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

The Bedroom Tax will kill Coalition claims of fairness

Comments 0 Comment

The Henry G. Manson Friday slot There are some that have likened the ‘bedroom tax’ to the ‘Poll Tax’. It’s not. The bedroom tax won’t apply to the vast majority of people, so its political purchase is limited in that respect. However it is hitting around 600,000 of some of the most vulnerable in society that is significant. The unfairness of the implications of this particular policy will ring out across the country come April. The fact that this will…

Read More Read More

The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

The Ashcroft poll shows that the Lib Dems can just hold Eastleigh but only if they can get their reluctant supporters to vote

Comments 0 Comment

Revised pie chart showing Ashcroft Eastleigh poll BEFORE application of certainty to vote filter twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2013 This will all come down to the GOTV operations We’ve now got the full data from the Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh by-election poll and the detail points to a fascinating and absorbing battle over the next 20 days. The headline figures, as reported last night, had CON 34%: LAB 19%: LD 31%: Ukip 13%. The reason that the Tories…

Read More Read More

The PB Thursday night local elections special

The PB Thursday night local elections special

Comments 0 Comment

Harry Hayfield previews the contests   Village on Stockton on Tees (Ind Defence) Last Local Elections (2011): Lab 27, Ind 13, Con 12, Lib Dem 4. No Overall Control (Labour short by 2) Result at last election (2011): Ind 2,109 (54%) Lab 1,251 (32%) Con 438 (11%) Lib Dem 116 (3%) With a name such as Village, it should come as no surprise to hear that this ward lies in Stockton South constituency (one of the few in the north…

Read More Read More

CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

CON 3 percent ahead in first #Eastleigh poll

Comments 0 Comment

Pie chart showing Lord Ashcroft’s first #Eastleigh poll with changes on #GE2010. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2013 The polling was conducted on 4 and 5 February by the former Conservative deputy chairman Lord Michael Ashcroft.