Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

Harry Hayfield’s guide to tonight’s by-elections

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Ulster Mid (Sinn Fein Defence) 1992: Democratic Unionist 19,274 (41%) SDLP 14,360 (31%) Sinn Fein 11,340 (24%) Alliance 1,229 (3%) Others 770 (2%) 1997: Sinn Fein 20,294 (40% +16%) Democratic Unionist 18,411 (36% -5%) SDLP 11,205 (22% -9%) Alliance 460 (1% -2%) Others 299 (1% -1%) Sinn Fein GAIN from Democratic Unionist 2001: Sinn Fein 25,202 (51% +11%) Democratic Unionist 15,549 (31% -5%) SDLP 8,376 (17% -5%) Others 509 (1% n/c) Sinn Fein HOLD 2005: Sinn Fein 21,641 (48% -3%) Democratic…

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Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015

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LAB #GE2015 targets numbers 1 – 25 from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 With polls as they are this looks an easy task This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team. If this is all they won and…

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EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

EdM’s & Yvette’s immigration rhetoric might be putting at risk some of LAB’s new found supporters

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A danger for LAB in upping the rhetoric on immigration? Chart showing views on issue broken down by #GE2010 vote. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2013 The current LAB panic over Ukip might be counter-productive A main reason why Labour is consistently showing poll leads over the Tories is that the party has attracted so many Lib Dem 2010 voters. If EdM & co are to win back power in 2015 then this segment of the electorate has…

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Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

Harry Hayfield puts the Ukip surge in an historical context

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If you’re one of those who really miss by-elections campaigns a reminder from last week. twitter.com/LoonyPartyNews… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Before Mr Farage gets too cock a hoop…. The last few parliamentary by-elections have been all about UKIP. They may not have won a seat, but they have certainly made the headlines. An increase of 14% in Corby, 16% in Rotherham, 24% in Eastleigh, polling over 10% of the vote in six of the last fifteen by-elections,…

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The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

The top GE2015 battlegrounds – where the blues, yellows and reds are most vulnerable

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Many of CON seats at risk are in the shire counties The top 20 most vulnerable CON seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/cons… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 The top 20 most vunerable LD seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/libd… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 Notice the very different pattern with LAB seats The top 20 most vulnerable LAB seats from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

At the May 2nd locals the Tories will be defending twice as many seats as LAB and the LDs combined

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The 2013 locals – look at how the Tories are defending the most and have most to lose.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ki… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2013 This could/should be the big chance for Farage’s Ukip On Thursday May 2nd the Tories face a massive test at this year’s local elections. The Wikipedia infographic sets it out – the blues will be defending 1.531 seats, the LDs 484 and Labour a paltry 178. The vast bulk of contests will be for…

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It’s the PB NightHawks cafe once again…

It’s the PB NightHawks cafe once again…

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Come in and talk about what you want It’s been a long time since we’ve had the PB NightHawks Cafe – so I thought we should revive. This is the place for the relaxed overnight conversation. Even if you’ve never posted before you are invited to join in. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB