Henry G Manson on Friday

Henry G Manson on Friday

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Theresa May in the Commons twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2013 Hello all: I hate the new Disqus as much as you do. I will be actively looking for a new alternative. Please bear with us until we find one. Thanks, Robert Has Theresa May forgotten her pledges to the disabled? Theresa May has been burnishing her right wing credentials in recent weeks. Predictably the right wing press has lapped up promises to withdraw from the Human Rights…

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Miserable night for the Tories as rock-solid council seats in Surrey and Sussex fall to Ukip and the LDs

Miserable night for the Tories as rock-solid council seats in Surrey and Sussex fall to Ukip and the LDs

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Cracking result in Runnymead DC, Chris Browne of @ukip pick up Foxhills District Council seat, by 18 votes overturning a 23% Tory Majority — Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler) March 15, 2013 #LibDem destroy a 1000 Tory majority to take the #Arun district Aldwick east seat in today’s by election for the first time @libdemnews — Cllr. Jamie Bennett (@JamieBen120689) March 15, 2013 Could May’s county elections could be a bloodbath? After yesterday’s dreadful national polls for the Conservatives there’s news overnight…

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The PB Local Elections Special with a chance of a gain for Ukip

The PB Local Elections Special with a chance of a gain for Ukip

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Tonight’s Harry Hayfield local by election preview Aldwick East on Arun (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Con majority of 40) Last Election Result (2011): Con 2,536 (64%) Lib Dem 622 (16%) UKIP 283 (7%) Ind 268 (7%) Lab 264 (7%)   Bognor Regis (given it’s title in recognition of the Monarch) is the sort of town that if a Conservative didn’t win shockwaves would ripple across the entire country. Even…

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The CON share with Ipsos-MORI drops to its lowest level since Jan 2003 – before the Iraq war

The CON share with Ipsos-MORI drops to its lowest level since Jan 2003 – before the Iraq war

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Latest Ipsos MORI poll just out has CON down to 27% and LAB lead at 13%.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 Farage has the best leader ratings in his first appearance Latest Ipsos MORI leader ratings sees numbers for Farage for first time &EdM seeing biggest drop.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 The last time that the CON MORI share was 27% was in Jan 2003. Nine months later the leader, IDS,…

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The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

The biggest challenge for Cameron – winning back CON 2010 voters now saying don’t know

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IfCON 2010 voters who are now “don’t know” return then #GE2015 could be lot closer. See pie chart fromICM data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 Why GE2015 could be closer than it now looks One of the biggest challenges when analysing voting intention polls is the very high level of “will vote – don’t knows” that we see. These totals are generally higher in ICM polls because the form of questioning is much less judgemental than with…

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How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

How Ukip could double or even triple their 2010 vote share at GE2015

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Latest prices from Ladbrokes on overall vote share for Ukip at #GE2015. For me the best bet is 6/4 5-10% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2013 But they’ll do far better in the non-battlegrounds Back at the 2010 general election Ukip achieved the ranking of eleventh in terms of seats (it got none) but fourth in terms of the overall national vote share. Then the total was 3.1% with the BNP’s on fourth place at 1.9%. Given the…

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A new Pope is elected

A new Pope is elected

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A new Pope is elected twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013 The new Pope was not amongst the betting favourites -see Oddschecker closing chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2013