So, what lies ahead for politics in 2013? Pausing only to admire my willingness to have a go, given my mediocre track record in predictions, let’s get stuck in. The current state of play Where are we now? For this, I can borrow wholesale from my summary from last year. The public doesn’t approve of the Coalition. The public doesn’t much like David Cameron. The public really doesn’t like Nick Clegg. The public doesn’t rate Ed Miliband either. The…
Ipsos-Mori have published their almanac for 2012, and it makes for fascinating reading, analysing the movements of 2012, and putting them into context and the problems and opportunities facing all the parties and leaders. You can view it for free, here. They note the trigger for the Tories’ loss of support seems to have been the budget delivered by George Osborne on 21 March, or perhaps the “omnishambles†of U-turns and clarifications that followed it…… Gideon Skinner of Ipsos-Mori concludes…
It certainly has been an extra-ordinary year for Boris, from winning re-election as Mayor of London, in what is supposedly a Labour city, whilst belonging to a party, that as a government had just delivered a double dip recession. Winning allowed him to be Mayor during the Olympics, where he mocked Mitt Romney, to the adulation of many, and he was associated with the feel good factor that the Olympics brought, so much so, he upstaged The Prime Minister. This…
Ladbrokes have some markets on some events that may occur in 2013. I’m quite intrigued by the YouGov one, in 2012, they produced nearly 250 VI polls, I’d expect a similar number in 2013, we could always have a rogue poll, the last Tory lead with YouGov was the 2nd of March 2012. The Boris Johnson one also looks interesting, as he as a history of such situations, as does the reality tv one, but the wording of it…
The map above shows the 2010 General election results, and shows Labour’s lack of seats in the South, a couple of years ago, the always perceptive Antifrank made this observation, which stuck in the mind, and puts the map into context Labour did appallingly in the south of England. In the south east, south west and eastern England combined, it won 10 seats. There were 197 on offer. Holding the 32 seats it lost in these regions in 2010 would have…
According to reports yesterday the Conservative Party wants to increase its efforts to woo ethnic voters ahead of the election. This, alongside gay marriage, appears to be the second lesson George Osborne took from the recent US Presidential election. The Independent understands the initial aim seems to be to increase the number of minority parliamentary candidates. Conservatives currently have 11 MPs from an ethnic minority background compared to Labour who have 13. The Liberal Democrats, somewhat incredibly, have zero. It…
As we are a few days away from the fortieth anniversary of The United Kingdom joining the EU, the Guardian has some polling by ICM on the EU. The public mood of Euroscepticism is hardening, according to an exclusive Guardian/ICM poll that finds 51% of respondents would vote to take Britain out of the EU, against just 40% who say they would vote to stay in. As the Guardian notes This marks a turnaround from similar polls conducted in the earliest years of…
William Hill have some markets on some events that may occur in 2013. Being an economic optimist, I’ve backed the UK to lose its AAA credit rating and interest rates to go up (based largely on this article) I’m also backing Andrew Mitchell and Chris Huhne to be back in cabinet and Silvio Berlusconi to be Italian PM. Which ones will you be backing? 4/7        UK To Lose Triple-A Credit Rating (5/4 Not To) 1/1        3p Increase In Fuel Duty In…