The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinforcing LD switchers to LAB

The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinforcing LD switchers to LAB

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If this is the newly confident Crosby line for Tories it's good: never mind Ukip this is a fight for a Tory or Labour government #bbcsp — Miranda Green (@greenmiranda) July 7, 2013 The excellent Miranda Green Tweeted the above during BBC1’s Sunday Politics yesterday and my immediate reaction was that she was right and this form of rhetoric would work very effectively at GE2015 squeezing the UKIP vote and moving it to the Tories. Framing the battle in these…

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Murray’s victory

Murray’s victory

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Get your money on Andy Murray @DPJHodges thinks he's going to lose. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 26, 2013 @dpjhodges Do you want to extend our general election wager? See pic pic.twitter.com/cjO1tq4EHG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 Alex Salmond captures the spirit of the moment See pic.twitter.com/T8bHwV6o4b — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013

At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sunday Times YouGov poll had it

At this stage, 22 months before GE2010, this is how the Sunday Times YouGov poll had it

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But will things be different with a coalition? The date, July 7th, means that we are exactly 22 months away from May 7th 2015 – the day laid down in the Fixed Parliament Act for the next general election. We’ve all heard of the swingback theory that governments recover as we get closer to elections. Indeed just click on the 2010 result tab on the graphic to see how much LAB eventually made up. What we don’t know is how…

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The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

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Today’s key YouGov poll details The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead down to 6% CON 33% LAB 39% LD 11% UKIP 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 All 3 leaders take small hit in YouGov leader ratings Dave minus 20 from -17 EdM minus 34 from -31 Clegg minus 51 from -49 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 29% tell YouGov that EdM has been too close to the Unions 13% too distant 22% about right. 36% say don't know — Mike…

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In spite of his current travails the betting markets make EdM the leader most likely to hang on to his job during 2013

In spite of his current travails the betting markets make EdM the leader most likely to hang on to his job during 2013

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Dave deemed to be most at risk party leader during 2013 according to PaddyPower See odds expressed as percentages pic.twitter.com/WDp7dFiJiu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 6, 2013 Dave is the one most at risk As a general rule I think that we over-estimate the chances of leaders being booted out when the going gets a bit tough. Time and time again we’ve seen people hang on even in, apparently, the most difficult of circumstances. The basic fact is that once someone…

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Unite has grown too big for its own good

Unite has grown too big for its own good

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And it’s grown too big for Labour’s too The extraordinary row that has blown up over the selection for Labour’s nomination in Falkirk at the next General Election is a natural and inevitable consequence of the empire building within the union sector. There is nothing inherently wrong with unions seeking to influence Labour party selections. After all, the Labour Party was set up as a creature of the unions in the first place and Len McCluskey does have a valid…

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The NHS at 65: What do we really think of it?

The NHS at 65: What do we really think of it?

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Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65 from Ipsos MORI There’s also some Survation polling for the Mirror/ITV On NHS's 65th birthday 85% tell Survation that they were satisfied with their most recent experience of the service http://t.co/Sjjkl3GsRQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 5, 2013 78% tell Survation Mirror/ITV Daybreak poll that the NHS should always remain free at the point of delivery http://t.co/fZ5Ms8IzjT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 5, 2013 74% of sample in Survation NHS poll opposed the idea of…

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