I’m looking forward to seeing the polling on Sunak’s driving changes and I won’t come to a firm view until I do. Maybe this will resonate and the PM will get a boost. Maybe it won’t But judging by the discussions on social media they don’t seem to have gone down well. Speeding limits do save lives. I’m just amazed that Sunak thought he was onto a winner. Mike Smithson
I cannot recall a Westminster by-election betting market which has been as tight as that on Mid Beds. The fight looks to be between LAB, the Tories and the LDs and the latest moves have been towards the red team in the betting. The by-election kings of this parliament, the Lib Dems, are now in third place after being favourites for a while. It is entirely possible that the Tories could hang onto the seat like they did against the…
LAB with no overall majority would be a great result for Sunak For a long time my only General Election bet has been that Labour would not get an overall majority. Under the terms of the betting markets they could still have the most seats and have what is an effect an overall majority for me to win. The terms of the betting market stipulate that a total of 326 is required. In practical terms Labour could end up with…
You would have thought that a Number 10 staffer would have done the most basic of research before the boss made an announcement. Maybe it was done but Sunak ignored it. Unfortunately Sunak is now lumbered with this policy which will be brought up time and time again to undermine him. Mike Smithson
How will oldies react? I genuinely cannot work out whether this is going to help the Tories or not. One problem is that motorists can also be pedestrians and cyclists. Another factor is that increasingly non drivers are oldies which make up the heart of the Tory core vote. Sunak will also be taking on many Tory councils and councillors who have backed measures to restrict motoring in the past. Making the streets less safe looks like a desperate gamble…
How’ll this go down in the Red Wall?
We are going to see a fair bit of a so-called red wall polling over the next 12 months or so. These were the seats, of course, that were almost all taken by the Tories at the last general election and all are key targets for Starmer next time. My understanding is that 39 of the seats in the poll voted Tory at the 2019 election and the final one, Hartlepool, was gained in 2020.These are therefore the core of…