Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

Time to make some money from the CON majority fantasists

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Punters on the Betfair exchange now giving the Tories a 23.8% chance of an overall majority. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/MJoqFqQf7r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 18, 2013 The Betfair 23.8% chance is a ludicrous over-assessment The latest trade in Betfair’s GE2015 outcome market has a CON majority rated as 23.8% chance. There must be a lot of blue supporters out there betting with their hearts not their heads – always a good opportunity for smart political punters. Let’s get this…

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The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

The final phone poll of 2013 has almost no change on November

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UPDATE – But LAB YouGov leads jumps 6 to 8% YouGov/Sun poll LAB lead jumps from 2% yesterday to 8% tonight CON 33%-3 LAB 41%+3 LD 8%= UKIP 13%+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2013 So no autumn statement boost with ComRes phone There’s the December phone poll from ComRes for the Indy just out and the figures are almost exactly the same as in November. Only shift is that UKIP are down 1. The firm’s phone polls clearly use a different methodology…

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My favourite political betting moment of the year

My favourite political betting moment of the year

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When politics and poker met The worlds of politics and poker have been feeding off each other for many decades, and in the Middle East’s most discussed and highly charged conflict, the two were about to collide in an unexpected fashion. An army is on the move, rockets detonate with an unrelenting regularity and the civil war in Syria is reaching its most bloody phase. Prime Ministers take to the nearest camera to deliver a solemn hope for peace, and…

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My political pollster of the year: Lord Ashcroft

My political pollster of the year: Lord Ashcroft

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Remember national political polls are mood music. It's what's happening in the marginal seats that matters. — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) December 16, 2013 We are at that time of the year when we look back at what’s happened in the past twelve months and highlight and reflect. PB will be no different. Over the next few days there’ll be a number of posts with “……of the Year” in the heading. My first is for the man who, through his extensive…

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Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

Like September’s @LordAshcroft poll latest constituency polling finds bigger CON>LAB swings than current national polling

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Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder. Just like Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample phone polling of the marginals in September Survation find that the Tory position in the seats is worse than in national polling where we are seeing a 6-7% CON>LAB swing. The chart above shows moves much bigger than that in each…

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The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

The final Bown-funded constituencty polls are out tonight – perhaps they’ll give us pointer to which Farage will choose

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The latest round of Survation constituency polls should give us an idea where Farage will stand PaddyPower betting pic.twitter.com/CwghokJpBE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2013 I’m expecting 4 single-seat polls tonight all funded by the UKIP donor, Alan Bown. My guess is that Farage will opt for one of the Kent seats where he has roots. We had a Thanet South poll three weeks back which looked promising for him. Maybe one of the latest batch of polls will tell…

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Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

Andy Murray’s SPOTY victory could help the IndyRef NO campaign

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Absolutely ruddy shameless pic.twitter.com/u15I1LFjtd — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 7, 2013 Sport is very much part of national identity If you don’t believe that sport and politics are intricately linked just look at the Tweet above from the Mail’s Matt Chorley a few minutes after Andy Murray’s historic victory at Wimbledon in July. That Cameron was pictured against the backcloth the Saltire next to a smiling Alex Salmond was widely seen as a political coup for the SNP leader. Clearly…

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