Athough ahead on votes te Tories would trail on seats Unfortunately I was tied up in a meeting when Lord Ashcroft’s first weekly phone poll came out and am only now just catching up. Looking at the methodology this seems to be following ICM or how Populus used to do it when they were pollster for the Times. The sample is past vote weighted and there is a spiral of silence adjustment. It looks sound. The only caveat I’ve got…
The big polling news is that Lord Ashcroft has announced that starting this week he’ll be doing a weekly phone poll right through until the general election. He’ll also be doing regular battleground surveys. This is a great development because so much of current polling is online and phone surveys have now been reduced to just three a month – ComRes, ICM and Ipsos-MORI. They are a lot more costly but, as we saw in 2010 and at he AV…
Which ones would you put on the list? Tomorrow I’m taking part in an event at the House of Commons on the electoral impact of immigration at the next general election. My intention is to highlight the very big gap between responses to polling questions on what are the big issues facing the country and what issues impact most on you and your family. Thus the last time that YouGov asked this 52% included it in their top three responses…
Just 23% think EdM is “up to the job of being PM” Above are four key policy areas tested in the latest YouGov poll and as can be seen the responses have been quite positive. For three of the four areas even CON voters give them their backing. For the other, renationalising the railways, Tory voters split 42-42. The rest of the poll is not so good for the red team. To all questions that have Ed Miliband’s name in…
This result could totally undermine the legitimacy of Labour’s victory The big impact of the rise of Ukip looks set to be a general election outcome that could call into question its whole legitimacy. If current trends continue Ukip could end up with many more votes nationally than the LDs and not end up with a single MPs. Labour could come home with a substantial overall majority even though it chalked up less than a third of the overall number…
And the purples continue to progress for the Euros
Postal voting starts for the Euros pic.twitter.com/PrO0foV8JO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 4, 2014 For them the elections are over The latest for postal vote packs to have gone out was yesterday and will have arrived this morning. Given what we know of how quickly postal voters generally act and the level of turnouts that these elections attract it is not too dramatic an assumption to say that getting on for half of all the votes have now been cast….
The 5-3-2 proposal is unworkable and looks like a wrecking attempt There’s no doubt that David Cameron looks like someone who wants to avoid the kind of leaders’ debates that dominated the 2010 election. He’s on record as saying that he’d prefer a different format, though the lack of engagement in the process to design them suggests no great urgency on his or his party’s part. Indeed, the proposal to have three debates – one between him and Ed Miliband,…