What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

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Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011. Just look…

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The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

The Scottish Independence Referendum becomes a clash of polling methodologies

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The Scottish Independence Referendum: polls from the last two months (Wikipedia) http://t.co/EdVHyAIdls pic.twitter.com/7po7alHTbw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 YouGov’s Peter Kellner fires the opening salvos There was a time when you asked YouGov’s Peter Kellner why his figures were very different from other firms he would respond by saying that he never commented about how other firms operated. No more. Last night Peter launched a sharp attack in a long blog post on some other pollsters, particularly Survation,…

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Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

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Voting intention in my LD-Lab marginals poll, plus Brighton Pavilion: pic.twitter.com/lfGWEXSPAo — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 Labour set for gains as Lib Dem vote share halves in key marginals – my latest battleground polling on @ConHome: http://t.co/JpVP0KdkuP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 My poll of four seats on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, at a glance: pic.twitter.com/OilW2apAKd — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 But the choice of seats ignores the interesting battles Sorry about the delay…

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Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

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Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014 Time is running out for YES The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb. In a campaign that is…

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The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010

The ComRes phone poll for the Indy and YouGov complete the biggest polling day since GE2010

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Only Ashcroft has CON in the lead The one thing that is absolutely certain about GE2015 is that it will be the most polled general election ever. Today we’ve had four full national voting intention polls which I don’t think has happened since May 5th 2010. Just keeping up has been challenging and interpreting the data even harder. The LAB lead increased with Populus but has dropped with YouGov and ComRes and there’s been crossover with Ashcroft. Mike Smithson 2004-2014:…

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A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

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Tories take lead in new Ashcroft phone poll Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Ashcroft poll changes on last week CON 33 +5 LAB 31 -2 LD 9= UKIP 15 -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 The 5% increase in CON share in Ashcroft poll is outside the margin of error. Is DC's Juncker's stance giving him a boost? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Even though LAB would be behind on…

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The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

The polls might be pointing to a comfortable LAB majority – but punters aren’t convinced

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LAB’s chances now rated at below 30% We’ve not looked at the overall GE2015 betting markets for some while but over the three and a half months since the budget there has been a steady decline in LAB prices with a tightening of both the hung parliament possibility and a CON majority. Check on the chart above to see how things have changed since the budget. A LAB majority down from nearly 40% to 29.8%; CON majority up nearly 5%…

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Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

Monday morning polling round-up with worrying figures for LAB in ComRes marginals poll

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If this was the only marginals polling about LAB would be pressing the panic button In the second in the ComRes series of ‘Battlebus’ polls of the 40 most marginal LAB-CON constituencies, Labour holds a 5% lead over CON. At GE2010 the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats. 25 of the seats included currently have CON MPs – the other 15 LAB ones. When analysing all poll findings from the marginals the key thing is the…

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