UKIP move up in tonight’s phone polls while the Tories slip back

UKIP move up in tonight’s phone polls while the Tories slip back

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The day has seen three new GE15 polls all of them completed after UKIP success in the by-elections on Thursday. Populus online which came out this morning showed no change for the party but the two phone polls, ICM and Ashcroft, reported increases. ICM had Farage’s party moving up 5% to 14% while Ashcroft recorded 19% for the purples – up 2 and equalling the highest ever share that his polling has found. So less than two weeks after the…

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And so to Rochester & Strood which has become a “must win” for both the Tories and UKIP

And so to Rochester & Strood which has become a “must win” for both the Tories and UKIP

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Latest Betfair trade has Ukip's Mark Reckless as a 78% chance to win the Rochester & Strood by-election pic.twitter.com/MN5bWpcTNr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 Will the CON all postal primary get them into the game? Inevitably UKIP go into the upcoming Rochester & Strood by-election with their tails up high. Clacton, and even more so, Heywood have given the party the “big mo” which they hope will carry over to the next contest. Although the only public poll…

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The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting

The first general election after the AV referendum looks set to see unprecedented levels of tactical voting

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The detail of possible tactical voting in CON-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/iMgKVhPsdx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 The detail of possible tactical voting in LAB-CON & LAB-LD battles from today's YouGov pic.twitter.com/4DNlTvykCg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 Many electors will vote AGAINST LAB/CON/LD/UKIP rather than FOR Reproduced above is some fascinating data from today’s YouGov/ST poll on questions which try to tease out how people would cast their ballots if their party of choice didn’t…

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If Ed Miliband wasn’t polling so badly then what’ll happen on May 7th would be a lot clearer

If Ed Miliband wasn’t polling so badly then what’ll happen on May 7th would be a lot clearer

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Confused? So is everyone it appears Headline points from @LordAshcroft poll for Sun on Sunday http://t.co/hSHlMNLqaH pic.twitter.com/5GlgwI3ogd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2014 The question is how much of a liability is the LAB leader Last night more polls were published than on any day since GE10. We had surveys of all sorts from YouGov, ICM, Opinium, Survation and Lord Ashcroft and it is hard to draw any conclusions. In the voting polls LAB was ahead in all but Survation…

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The Saturday night rolling polling blog

The Saturday night rolling polling blog

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Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%. Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any…

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Four months before being elected Tory leader Margaret Thatcher was a 50-1 shot

Four months before being elected Tory leader Margaret Thatcher was a 50-1 shot

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Amazing betting odds on the CON leadership in Oct 1974 from the BBC re-run of GE1974 results programme. Maggie 50/1 pic.twitter.com/epdoKJmV5y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 11, 2014 Did you get on? I certainly didn’t The BBC Parliament Channel has been re-running the October 1974 General Election results programme as part of its intermittent series of playing back old elections. I love them and you learn so much simply from seeing how things were seen then. A common feature of…

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To Clacton and beyond, but just how far is that?

To Clacton and beyond, but just how far is that?

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David Herdson on Thursday’s dramatic elections Revolutions are best viewed through the wide-angled lens of history, not the microscope of journalism.  Even in the most turbulent times, occurrences that would have seemed literally incredible just a few years earlier are taken almost for granted after the conditioning of intervening incremental events. So it is with UKIP’s successes at this week’s by-elections.  Douglas Carswell’s victory was expected by all sides and duly delivered.  His colleague in Heywood and Middleton came very…

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