Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

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LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…

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The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

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At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Now the betting can get really serious For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you…

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Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

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Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…

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The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

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While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture. The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of…

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The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

The Saturday night polling news starts to come out and it doesn’t look good for Ed

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The Saturday rolling poll thread Survation/MoS testing voting intentions with different LAB leaders. Cooper comes off worse – Johnson & Umuna best pic.twitter.com/sfh9m8VNWI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 YouGov/S Times poll has only 34% of LAB voters thinking Ed Miliband is up to the job as party leader — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 8, 2014 Other side of coin is that less than 6 months from GE15 two recent polls, Opinium and Survation have the Tories down in…

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